414
FXUS64 KMAF 171153
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
- VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH THE AREA
TODAY, WHILE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO BRINGS INCREASED FIRE
DANGER LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING
AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY (> 80% CONFIDENCE)
NECESSITATE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT AS AN OPEN WAVE NORTH OF
THE REGION CREATING THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS TRANSLATING FURTHER TO THE
EAST BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
AGREEMENT POSITIONING A 45-55 KT JET MAXIMA FOR BOTH THE 700 AND
850MB LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DUE
TO THIS, WINKLER, LOVING, AND WARD COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING. CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SUPPLYING MIXING FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO OCCUR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND LONGER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
SUPPLYING THESE AREAS WITH LOWER WINDS. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THESE
WINDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING DUST, GIVEN THE DRY SOILS AND
NOT MUCH RAIN TO SPEAK OF OVER AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE FOR LOCALIZED
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR OPEN FIELDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8-
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION, THANKS TO
THERMAL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. BY MIDNIGHT, WINDS SHALL
SUBSIDE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE.
MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT ENTERS THE PERMIAN
BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHICH WILL BEGIN THE
TREND OF COLDER WEATHER IN STORE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS
(STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS) COULD IMPACT GUADALUPE PASS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS, BIG BEND, AND
RIO GRANDE. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80 PERCENT) THAT
COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR JUST ABOUT ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE
MAINLY ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW (10 PERCENT OR LESS) AT THIS TIME GIVEN A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE COLD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND
WARMER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING, PERHAPS KNOCKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50S DEGREES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A THICK CANOPY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. BLOWING DUST COULD LIMIT THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER TO MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 32 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 66 35 59 22 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 43 70 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 70 40 62 21 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 55 32 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 64 28 50 18 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 62 33 57 19 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 32 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 68 32 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 68 33 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-WARD-WINKLER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-
DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-
NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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