822
FXUS64 KMAF 182038
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- TURNING WINDY AND COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS LEA
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY (> 80% CONFIDENCE)
NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION LAST NIGHT HAS
STALLED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. A SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SEND A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH MOST LOCATIONS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15-20 MPH. A FEW HOURS OF STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE ISSUED A
SHORT-FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING. THE SAME SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS E NM INTO THE TX HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO N. LEA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SNOW AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF THE WAVE IS
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES NEAR THE I-
20/I-10 SPLIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS MOISTURE DAMS UP AGAINST THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S AND WIND CHILLS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THAT. HAVE
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THESE VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS. WHILE WE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN, TEMPERATURES WON'T
WARM MUCH BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND LOW
40S AND IT MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE TEENS AND
20S SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONGER
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR COLDER WIND CHILLS (0F TO 15F) SO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. SPOTS IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE
TRANS PECOS AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS, MONDAY
NIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST (PARTICULARLY
IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE TRANS PECOS/RIO GRANDE
REGIONS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT, INCREASING WINDS AND
BRINGING DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN CAN SEE WIND
CHILL VALUES DIP BELOW ZERO. AS A RESULT, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY AS MONDAY APPROACHES.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
KEEPING TUESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AND LOW TO
MID 40S AT SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SPOTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
GAP WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
CAUSING TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES IN THE GUADALUPE PASS. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, HIGH WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING (TRANS PECOS AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN) WITH THE PASSING OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, WHERE WEAK ASCENT AND SOME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE
PRESENT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
DRY, THUS NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW (< 20%) FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS MORE DATA
COMES IN. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 20S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROACH SINGLE DIGITS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WHILE HIGHER TERRAINS MAY SEE
SINGLE DIGIT VALUES. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS MAY BE
FELT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RIO GRANDE.
AFTER SEEMINGLY BEING UNDER WINTER'S GRASP FOREVER, WARMER WEATHER
IS ON THE WAY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH, DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, BUMPING WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS UP TO THE LOW
50S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRANS PECOS.
UNSURPRISINGLY, YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD,
PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER, RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST AND LOW TO MID
50S IN THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS, BIG BEND, AND PRESIDIO VALLEY AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE REGION
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHS RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGHER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING
RETURNS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ALSO WATCHING
A DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH THAT COULD BRING A LOWER CLOUD DECK AND
SNOW FLURRIES THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 19 35 17 38 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 22 36 18 38 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 26 41 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 23 40 22 43 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 19 34 22 38 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 16 34 17 33 / 30 0 0 0
MARFA 18 42 17 50 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 20 36 19 38 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 21 36 20 39 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 24 37 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
CST /3 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-
LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
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