107
FXUS64 KMAF 201744
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1144 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- VERY LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR, THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A PREVALENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
IS BRINGING ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY DO NOT CHANGE MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE IN STORE BEGINNING THIS MORNING LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
IN WESTERN MEXICO, AS WELL AS AN ANOMALOUS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THUS, THESE TWO SYSTEMS PROVIDE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL PROVIDE THESE BREEZY WINDS OVER
MOST PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, PROVIDING COLDER TEMPERATURES,
GAP WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, AND PERHAPS ENOUGH LIFT FOR
LOW (10-30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MARGINAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
ACROSS TERRELL COUNTY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN. OTHER AREAS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY
RECEIVE FLURRIES. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THEREFORE,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO GOING TO BE A
BRIEF PERIOD HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPES, ESPECIALLY AT GUADALUPE
PASS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD.
COLD WEATHER HAZARDS ARE ALSO IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE ANOMALOUS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1044 MB) BUILDS IN
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS 15
BELOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, 5 BELOW TO ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS, AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. WIND CHILLS
MAY EXCEED BELOW THESE VALUES IN SPORADIC AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN, HOWEVER, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS OPTED GIVEN
THE VERY LOCALIZED COVERAGE OF THESE VALUES. TUESDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER
40S. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE WHERE SOME AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AS GUIDANCE GENERALLY
OVERESTIMATES TEMPERATURES IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REGIME.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL RETURN ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGHING
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED UP TO 10-15 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT OF COLD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY
RETURN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION MORE ZONAL OVER OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK EMBEDDED RIDGING AIDING IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
FURTHER INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE
IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES
IT AND THE RESULTING INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE LOWS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION (EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE) ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND PERMIAN BASIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER OUR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
GUSTY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. LOW(10-20%) POPS FOR PEQ/FST, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TERMINAL IMPACT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE. VFR
REMAINS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 37 15 35 21 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 37 13 38 20 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 43 23 39 20 / 0 30 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 46 18 36 23 / 0 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 34 13 31 23 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 33 11 33 19 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 51 11 36 15 / 0 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 38 16 34 22 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA 38 16 34 23 / 0 10 0 0
WINK 40 16 36 20 / 0 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 10
AM CST /9 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-
HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...93
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