977
FXUS64 KMAF 160459
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1059 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
- A COLD FRONT TONIGHT DROPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
BUT WE REBOUND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP BEGINNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
IT WILL BE A WARM, BUT WINDY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BASE OF A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE AREA. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHERE
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS
ARE HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THOUGH. ONCE SUNSET ARRIVES, DIURNAL MIXING WILL CEASE,
AND WIND SPEEDS QUICKLY DECREASE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY MORNING.
THIS CAUSES A CHILLY MORNING OF 20S AND 30S FOR EVERYONE OUTSIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS IS TOO LATE TO
IMPROVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. 40S AND 50S ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S TO THE WEST. THERE IS GOING TO BE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT NO RAIN IS TO
BE FOUND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE WORK WEEK STARTS OFF FAIRLY WARM BEFORE MOTHER NATURE HITS US
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER CHILL. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW NORTH OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, SENDING HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LOWS DROP INTO THE
30S AND 40S AS MUCH COLDER AIR LINGERS DUE NORTH OF OUR REGION.
TUESDAY BRINGS A PATTERN CHANGE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES A COLD
FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT. AT THE MOMENT, OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PECOS RIVER REACH INTO THE 70S AND 80S. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTHWARD, AIDED BY A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS,
LEADING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING ANYWHERE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE A SIMILAR SET UP, WITH
HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RISING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR
MOST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME AVERAGE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST, MEANING WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ARCTIC
AIR BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD, DRAGGING THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH
IT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS SETTLE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE NIGHT
BEFORE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS AS WINDS RETURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BY SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
-LOPEZ
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY AND NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT BACK SOUTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 66 25 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 65 31 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 76 38 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 56 34 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 62 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 61 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 26 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 65 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 68 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11
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