525
FXUS64 KMAF 161724
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- A COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY BUT WE
REBOUND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP BEGINNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL END UP
AGAINST THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP AND ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S.
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO 50F. LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S. HOWEVER, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY AND
THIS WARMS MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE NORMAL WITH AREAS WEST OF
MIDLAND/ODESSA REACHING INTO THE 70S. OTHERWISE, THE SHORT TERM
REMAINS DRY. THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST LONG AND THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW HAS THE DETAILS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES, WITH STEADILY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO THERE
SHOULD BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. SOUTH OF I-10 SHOULD GET ALMOST A FULL DAY OF HEATING AND
TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THE NBM HAS RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO
BUT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST WIND AT 10-15
MPH COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. SIMILAR TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR ANY
PEOPLE/PLANTS/PETS/PIPES LEFT EXPOSED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED OF MOISTURE WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST SO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND ROADS SHOULD BE FINE. CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPS TO GET
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALLOW FOR AN AFTERNOON REBOUND ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THE EXCEPTION BEING IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM BIG SPRING TO SNYDER WHERE THE COLD AIR
WILL BE DEEPER AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST STARTING FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE
AIR TO MODIFY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S BEFORE TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH WARMS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS AT CNM SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FST AND MAF SEEING THIS TRANSITION LATER THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 30 68 39 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 30 76 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 33 67 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 37 79 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 67 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 28 70 35 52 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 33 75 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 32 68 40 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 33 70 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 31 77 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91
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