421
FXUS64 KMAF 162022
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 217 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- A MILD START TO THE WEEK TURNS COLD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS DUE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE THANKS TO A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PECOS SEES TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S AND 50S. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S HANG ON FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE CHILL AS WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. TONIGHT SEES MOST LOCATIONS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY, SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AS OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. THIS RETURNS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA WITH MOST REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE, ENJOY THIS WARMER
WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS, AS BIG CHANGE IS JUST OVER THE HORIZON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT OUR WARM WEATHER RACES
OFF TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE REGION AND A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS SET TO PUSH A
POTENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME,
THE FRONT MAY BE JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR REGION BY SUNRISE. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MILD MORNING IN THE MID 30S TO 40S CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS THE LAST TOLERABLE MORNING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS WE RECEIVE A WAKE UP CALL THAT IT IS STILL WINTER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT USHERS IN AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
OUR AREA SOMETIME IN THE MORNING, MEANING TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY ON BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP AS THE DAY GOES ON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS AND EURO
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT ARRIVING AROUND MID MORNING, THE EPS SHOWS A
1048 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS, HINTING AT A FASTER MOVING
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. AS THE SHALLOW AIR MASS ENCOUNTERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN ITS PROGRESSION,
ALLOWING THESE LOCATIONS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PROVIDES CONTINUED FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TEENS TO 20S FOR MOST. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS
COMING IN ABOUT 10-15 MPH RESULT IN WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE BOTH MORNINGS.
THEREFORE, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
AS PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE DANGEROUS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REACH THE 30S AND 40S, THOUGH AREAS NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE WARM INTO THE 60S. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD, IMPEDING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BROADER, AND THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES START A WARMING TREND AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS DIP INTO
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY GIVE WAY
TO THE 60S ON SATURDAY, THEN 70S ON SUNDAY.
-LOPEZ
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS AT CNM SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FST AND MAF SEEING THIS TRANSITION LATER THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 30 66 39 51 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 30 74 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 33 64 41 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 37 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 67 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 28 69 37 53 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 32 73 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 32 67 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 33 68 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 32 73 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91
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