573
FXUS64 KMAF 171723
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- A MILD START TO THE WEEK TURNS COLD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS DUE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A SHORT WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR LOWS AS WE GET TO SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. WIND DIRECTIONS FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WARM THE REGION UP
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MID 70S FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT, LOWS FOR THE MORNING END
UP ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S FOR MOST. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL LIMIT WARMING AND MAKE FOR A
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AS COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
WITH 60S AND 70S FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY PLUNGE INTO THE END OF THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. MORE ON THE COLD SPELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS GETS ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
SENDING LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES EVERYWHERE BUT ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE (WIND
CHILL) WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. VALUES THIS
LOW WILL BE DANGEROUS TO LIFE AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO REMAIN ALERT EVEN IF OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WATCH CONTINUES. LOWS
WILL BE COLDEST THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE GREATEST COLD
THREAT. EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD AIR
TO THE EAST INTO THE CWA AND HIGHS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
WEDNESDAY.
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR A WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN A WARMING
TREND THAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS FRIDAY EDGE UP
INTO THE 40S, SATURDAY SEES HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S BEFORE SUNDAY
WARMS UP INTO THE 70S. DRY AIR PREVENTS ANY CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THERE SHOULDN'T EVEN BE ANY
CHANCE FOR FOG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY TOMORROW MORNING,
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS FRONT ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
TOMORROW, BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 40 48 12 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 45 65 22 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 41 81 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 78 49 77 21 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 45 64 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 68 37 52 15 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 72 41 70 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 41 54 14 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 67 41 56 15 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 74 39 66 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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