660
FXUS64 KMAF 180501
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1101 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1057 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, USHERING IN
TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO -5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS A RESULT, AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SURROUNDING COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH HELPS KEEP LOWS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO GENERALLY IN THE 40S (A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL). NEVERTHELESS, A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC BLAST FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BEFORE GETTING BLASTED BY THE COLD AIRMASS. LOCATIONS FROM
THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S, AS
THE FRONT WILL REACH THESE AREAS CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT OWING TO THE
STRONG GRADIENT IN PRESSURE. THIS, COMBINED WITH HARSH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WILL
SEE WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
(ACTUAL LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS). AS A RESULT, THE EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS
WARNING EXTENDS INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
MEANWHILE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALSO GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OTHER SURROUNDING COUNTIES. LOWS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS FROM THE
VAN HORN CORRIDOR TO THE MARFA PLATEAU ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE 50S, WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE (CANDELARIA/PRESIDIO/CASTOLON)
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY NM AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WITH READINGS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT IN THE 20S
OVER THE BIG BEND/ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10-20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
5 BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PERHAPS INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING LEA COUNTY NM INTO THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING DURING THIS TIME). ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REMAINDER OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES RANGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SO THERE ARE NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY LEE TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A GOOD
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND IN THE 60S WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND COMMENCES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S BY
SUNDAY (AND EVEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT MOST TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER ON FOR PEQ AND FST BY THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS (UP TO 30 KTS) ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS AT MOST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 40 46 12 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 45 64 21 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 41 78 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 78 49 71 20 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 45 62 22 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 68 37 48 14 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 72 40 69 25 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 41 52 13 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 67 42 53 15 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 74 40 62 19 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CRANE-LOVING-PECOS-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-TERRELL-WARD-
WINKLER.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL LEA-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...11
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