196
FXUS64 KMAF 181142
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, USHERING IN
TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO -5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS A RESULT, AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SURROUNDING COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY AND WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
HOUR. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING WITH
WIDESPREAD TEENS ALREADY SEEN IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IMMEDIATELY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A STEADY DECREASING
TREND THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS MEANS MORNING
HIGHS FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 SHOULD STILL
GET TO SEE AFTERNOON WARMING AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE THE SHARP
COOL OFF BEGINS.
LOWS TONIGHT DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS WITH THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. A EXTREME COLD WARNING/ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS IN THE CWA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR AREAS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S...AND MAY NOT EVEN GET ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF A
LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO BIG LAKE. THE NAM IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT TOMORROW THAT COULD
SERIOUSLY DAMPEN TEMPERATURES AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, THOUGH CURRENTLY IT IS AN OUTLIER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. WIDESPREAD TEENS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE AREA. FOR THIS, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL HOLD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THAT MORNING AS WIND
CHILLS DIP TO AROUND -5F. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING SEEING 20S AREAWIDE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
50S AND 60S HANGING ON FOR AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THE WARMUP BEGINS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOW 60S FOR MOST. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS MOVE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
70S WITH SIMILAR ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED STAYS
DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE
20KTS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THEREAFTER. SATELLITE
SHOWS MVFR CIGS SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH, BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ANY OF THE TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 40 11 29 10 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 57 21 43 15 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 77 24 42 20 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 62 19 37 17 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 62 22 38 16 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 44 15 35 11 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 70 25 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 43 13 31 12 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 43 14 32 12 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 55 18 38 15 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR CRANE-LOVING-PECOS-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-
TERRELL-WARD-WINKLER.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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