039
FXUS64 KMAF 190326
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
926 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO -5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS A RESULT, AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SURROUNDING COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS
WELL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WELL, THE LONG-EXPECTED ARCTIC FRONT FINALLY ARRIVED THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONFINED IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEHIND NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH 20S
SOUTH OF THE PECOS. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT
TONIGHT, AS WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 DEGREES. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKEWISE
GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SURROUNDING COUNTIES WHOSE WIND CHILLS
WILL BE BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 DEGREES.
THE CHILL STICKS AROUND TOMORROW AS EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. A COUPLE OF SHORT TO MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS (NAM, RAP, ETC) ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT LOW CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WHICH WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
WARMING TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING, WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. MEANWHILE,
AREAS CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL FARE A BIT BETTER, EXPERIENCING
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CLEARER SKIES KEEP THURSDAY'S LOWS BE A BIT COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY'S.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. DESPITE WEAKER WINDS,
OVERNIGHT/MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S, SO THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL COVER A SIMILAR AREA, WITH THE ADDITION OF
LEA COUNTY IN NEW MEXICO. FURTHERMORE, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EVERY PART OF THE REGION MINUS RIGHT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, WHICH (ALONG WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING) IS EFFECTIVE
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY. A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING OVER FAR NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN ON THURSDAY, WITH
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE REST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT IN THE 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA). LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
PERMIAN BASIN, AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WHILE LOWS OVER THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS, BIG BEND, MARFA PLATEAU, AND PRESIDIO VALLEY/LOCATIONS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RANGE IN THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
THE COLD DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SO FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN CHILLY BUT TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND TRANS
PECOS REGION AND IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND BIG BEND REGION. LOWS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE SCARCE, SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE TROUGHING SHOULD TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND
SHOULD COMMENCE, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS AREAS, AND EVEN
WARMER IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE 70S AND 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, THEN VEER TO EAST. A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 11 30 10 37 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 20 42 15 40 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 24 43 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 19 38 16 43 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 21 39 15 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 14 34 11 34 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 24 52 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 13 32 11 38 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 14 33 12 38 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 18 39 15 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 10
AM CST /9 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-
MARFA PLATEAU-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CRANE-LOVING-
PECOS-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-TERRELL-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...44
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