641
FXUS64 KMAF 191105
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE!
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW LOW CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS OFTEN FAIL TO CAPTURE
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE COLD AIR WHICH DESPITE IT BEING DRY
ALOFT, IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONDENSATION ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONT. THE NBM HAS FAILED TO DEPICT THIS VERY WELL AND IT COULD
IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CLOUDS, WHICH MAY NOT EVEN LEAVE THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY ADVECT IN COLDER
AIR AND TONIGHT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE THAN THIS MORNING EVEN
IF BY ONLY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER MAINLY DUE TO FEWER
CLOUDS. SHOULD WE SEE AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
THOUGH, THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE OPTIMISTIC AS EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE BRINGING IN COLD AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED TO OUR EAST.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HANG ON
WITH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN
SETTLING INTO THE TEENS. 20S HOLD ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS WITH 30S
SEEN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A SLOW WARMUP OCCURS OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS TAKE
ON SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY COMPONENTS AND THIS AIDES IN TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND MOVING ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
THE WARMING DOES NOT STOP THERE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEDIUM CHANCE(40-60%) FOR
HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 80F FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGHS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, FOR NOW THIS IS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD TERRITORY FOR THOSE DATES. THOUGH THE WARMTH WILL BE WELCOME
AFTER THIS WEEK, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE HOB/MAF THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. INK COULD BE AFFECTED AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THAT TAF AT THIS TIME.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 27 10 33 17 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 40 15 37 18 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 41 18 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 36 16 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 15 36 20 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 33 11 35 15 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 52 20 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 29 11 35 18 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 30 12 36 19 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 37 15 38 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-
MARFA PLATEAU-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CRANE-LOVING-
PECOS-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-TERRELL-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
COUNTY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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