321
FXUS64 KMAF 200454
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE!
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM (40%-60%) CHANCE OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 80F MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED, BUT THE 12Z KMAF RAOB SHOWS A DRY
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND THE ONLY SATURATED LAYER 870-850 MB.
AS IS TYPICAL, MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE COLD FRONT
POORLY...NAMELY, THE STRATUS DECK SOCKING IN MOST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE PECOS. THIS WAS IN NONE OF THE MODELS YESTERDAY, AND UNTIL
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER BACK AROUND TO RETURN FLOW, THIS CLOUD
DECK IS LIKELY TO GO NOWHERE. THIS ARGUES FOR A SMALLER DIURNAL
SPREAD ON TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST, WHICH WOULD FAVOR
THE NAM, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING, CONSIDERING THAT THE NAM HAS A
BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION. THUS, WE'RE LEANING TO THE
COLDER SIDE OF ALL SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE'LL THROW THE
GUADALUPES, DELAWARES, CULBERSON COUNTY, DAVIS MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS,
AND MOST OF BREWSTER COUNTY INTO TONIGHT'S WARNING, AND EXTEND
THE PRODUCTS OUT TO 18Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY, SURFACE WINDS VEER TO EASTERLY, BUT OVERCAST SKIES WILL
KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES AGAIN, ALTHOUGH CAA MAY BE A BIT LESS,
GIVEN THE WIND SHIFT.
THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT, YET STILL COLD ENOUGH IN AREAS NORTH TO WARRANT ANOTHER
COLD ADVISORY. HOWEVER, TO AVOID SOWING CONFUSION WITH CURRENT
PRODUCTS IN EFFECT, WE'LL ADDRESS THIS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT TROUGHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK TRANSITIONING
TO BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST
INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMING TREND AND LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST. RIDGING OVER PACIFIC SW/DESERT SW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST DOWN
THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAN ON
THURSDAY, WAA WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY, AND HIGHS REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE NORTHEAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THIS TRANSLATES TO 40S FROM THE UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
SE NM PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY, 50S FROM
BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INTO REEVES COUNTY PLAINS AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTIES,
AND 60S ELSEWHERE. CONTINUING THE TENDENCY FOR A SLOW WARM UP,
FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE PERSIST, WITH
LOWER TO MID 20S, UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN,
TERRELL COUNTY, AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO
COUNTIES, AND MID 30S IN THE PRESIDIO VALLEY.
MID TO UPPER ANALYSIS DEPICTS SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN SLOWLY FADES AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK, FAST MOVING, AND WITH MOST LIFT AND MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, SO THE WEEKEND STAYS DRY AND
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. BY SATURDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHERLY, WITH INCREASED LOWER LEVEL WAA AND AN EASING TROUGH
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR HIGHS "RISING" TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY AND FEATURING 50S NORTHEAST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S
SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS, LOWER TO MID 70S PRESIDIO VALLEY
INTO BIG BEND. HIGHS SATURDAY HAVE TRENDED LOWER NORTHEAST OF
DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN MOST RECENT RUNS, SO DESPITE WAA FROM SOUTHERLY
WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP. SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN COOLER SPOTS AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN
WARMER SPOTS FROM CULBERSON COUNTY AND NORTHEAST DAVIS MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU, AS WELL AS PRESIDIO VALLEY TO BIG
BEND ARE ALL ANTICIPATED.
BY SUNDAY, NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MAKE A REAPPEARANCE WITH EXPANSION OF
RIDGING FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S, MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
TERRELL COUNTY INTO BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFIES. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING FROM TX PANHANDLE
INTO SE NM PLAINS PER WPC ANALYSIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THESE MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL INCREASE WAA MORE THAN LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGHS AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND CLOSER TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
70S TO LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER ARE
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MEDIUM (40%-60%) CHANCE FOR
HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 80F MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR REGIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR AVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S GIVE WAY TO LOWS 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING FROM LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN HIGHER OVERNIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, WARMTH MAY BE SUPPRESSED AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY, WITH CAA RESULTING IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS WHERE THE FRONT MOVES IN, AND LOWER TO MID 80S CONFINED TO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIKELY THE RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL
COUNTY. THIS WILL STILL BE AROUND 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE FEBRUARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT WEDNESDAY LIKEWISE REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN AFTER
THE ONGOING COLD AIR OUTBREAK PASSES, SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL
VERY DRY DESPITE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MAF, WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP CIGS AT
MVFR. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE STRATUS DECK CREEPING TOWARDS FST
EVER SO SLOWLY FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BELOW VFR THERE. EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 12 32 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 15 35 14 45 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 19 40 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 14 40 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 10 39 11 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 12 32 11 41 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 16 53 19 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 11 33 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 11 33 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 13 37 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS
BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
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