850
FXUS64 KMAF 200934
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
334 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE!
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM (40%-60%) CHANCE OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 80F MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONTINUES THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THIS CLOUD COVER POORLY AND THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DISPARITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ABOUT WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AND
FOR HOW LONG. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON IF CLOUD CAN
BLOCK AFTERNOON INSOLATION AS WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY WHERE ABUNDANT
CLOUDS KEPT TEMPS BELOW FORECAST. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE IN THE PB AND HAVE TRENDED
THIS FORECAST TOWARDS SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM
THE WARMER NBM.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE COLD THOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE ONSET OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH 50S AND 60S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
A FEW SCATTERED AREAS SAW A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW YESTERDAY AND
CAN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING SIMILAR AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW HOWEVER AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL
BE TRENDING UP FROM THE DOWNRIGHT COLD WEATHER THERE HAS BEEN FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS MOVE INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY AND THEN LEAP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE HOLD. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MEDIUM CHANCE(40-60%) OF REACHING 80F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT SORT OF WARMTH DOES NOT LAST LONG
AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND ONLY KNOCKS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S TO END THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
DESPITE THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MAF, WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP CIGS AT
MVFR. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE STRATUS DECK CREEPING TOWARDS FST
EVER SO SLOWLY FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BELOW VFR THERE. EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 29 16 41 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 34 17 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 38 24 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 36 22 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 31 19 42 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 30 14 40 21 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 50 23 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 31 17 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 30 17 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 34 20 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS
BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13
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