817
FXUS64 KMAF 201732
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1132 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE!
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM (40%-60%) CHANCE OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 80F MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONTINUES THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THIS CLOUD COVER POORLY AND THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
DISPARITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ABOUT WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AND
FOR HOW LONG. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON IF CLOUD CAN
BLOCK AFTERNOON INSOLATION AS WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY WHERE ABUNDANT
CLOUDS KEPT TEMPS BELOW FORECAST. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE IN THE PB AND HAVE TRENDED
THIS FORECAST TOWARDS SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND AWAY FROM
THE WARMER NBM.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE COLD THOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE ONSET OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH 50S AND 60S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
A FEW SCATTERED AREAS SAW A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW YESTERDAY AND
CAN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING SIMILAR AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW HOWEVER AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL
BE TRENDING UP FROM THE DOWNRIGHT COLD WEATHER THERE HAS BEEN FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS MOVE INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY AND THEN LEAP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
TAKE HOLD. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MEDIUM CHANCE(40-60%) OF REACHING 80F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT SORT OF WARMTH DOES NOT LAST LONG
AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND ONLY KNOCKS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S TO END THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
DESPITE THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE LOW STRATUS NEAR KCNM AND KINK GRADUALLY
ERODING, SO I AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH OF THOSE SITES
BEFORE 19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE E TO ENE (090-120)
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND THE OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS.
EPZ - BROWN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
MARFA MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
WINK MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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