598
FXUS64 KMAF 210453
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1053 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF
SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE!
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH (80%-100%) CHANCE OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 80F MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER WITH A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
COLD, ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM, ACROSS UT, A S/W TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND IS INCREASING W'LY FLOW ALOFT. THE
INCREASED WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN ERODING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS, BUT
NOT UNTIL AFTER ANOTHER COLD START FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE BIG BEND AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER MORNING OF SINGLE-
DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR FRIDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
60S BENEATH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
EPZ - BROWN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM.
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NM SATURDAY MORNING, ENTERING
TX BY MID-DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISRUPT A SURFACE GRADIENT, SO
WINDS WILL BE MUTED IN SPITE OF THE H500 SWINGING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ERODE
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE, LEADING TO WARMING HIGHS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INGESTING INTO THE LOW, BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LATEST ECMWF SPITS OUT A LITTLE QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR SE NM, BUT NBM POPS DO NOT
REFLECT THIS. THIS S/W WILL EXIT EAST BY EVENING.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SW PLACING THE
CWA BENEATH NW'LY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED S/W
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGHS WILL WARM FOR SUNDAY IN SPITE OF SURFACE FLOW
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET AND WARM WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON THE WAKE OF A S/W WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL TRIM ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE REST OF THE CWA SEEING A DROP
INTO THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED CAA. THIS AIR MASS IS NOT NEARLY AS
COLD AS THE ONE SEEN CURRENTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
BROWN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
CLOUD DECK IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE EAST OF MAF (AND HAS AT POINTS
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR THERE). HOWEVER, SATELLITE HAS
SHOWN THIS DECK TRENDING FARTHER AWAY FROM MAF, AND HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT THIS SITE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEADY EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE MAIN FIRE ISSUE WILL BE VERY DRY AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIN
RH VALUES WILL RANGE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR FRIDAY, BUT AS A
WARM, DRY AIR MASS REPLACES THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS, MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON. BY THIS WEEKEND,
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH VALUES WITH VALUES JUST
ABOVE 10 TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SE NM. WINDS HOWEVER
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, TOPPING OUT AT OR BELOW 10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES.
BROWN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 15 41 23 53 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 18 42 21 56 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 23 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 22 49 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 18 43 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 14 40 21 53 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 23 58 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 17 42 24 53 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 17 42 25 53 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 19 44 25 55 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER
BREWSTER COUNTY-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13
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