517
FXUS64 KMAF 211710
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF OUT
AND ABOUT IN THE MORNING!
- GRADUAL WARM UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO INTO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES FURTHER TO THE EAST,
THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, MITIGATING THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUPPLYING SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WHILE AREAS ALONG THE PRESIDIO AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEYS WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S.
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IN STORE ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY SPAN FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AREAWIDE. WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE, COLD HAZARDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO PREVALENT IN SOME
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTING AT A LOW POTENTIAL OF
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. NBM AND SREF GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW (5-10%) CHANCES OF VISIBILITIES REACHING LESS
THAN A MILE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING INTO SOUTHEASTERN AZ/SOUTHWESTERN NM VICINITY,
SUPPLYING SOME LIFT AHEAD IN THE REGION. LOW (10%) CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IS PREVALENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING PER THE NBM, HREF, AND ECMWF. MUCH
OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO NOT RESOLVE THESE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A TRACE TO 0.01" OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THESE PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OF 0.01" OR GREATER REMAINS VERY LOW
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE IN THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS NEARING SATURATION COULD
FAVOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG OR FREEZING FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CURRENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG
FORMATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS LOW (10-20 PERCENT), BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADD MENTION INTO THE FORECAST IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AND A MORE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE ALONG THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 5-15 PERCENT ACROSS OUR REGION.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TREND WARMER IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S,
WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SENDING THE NEXT ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT, WHILE CONTINUING TO RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION (A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE COULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES). LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S, WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD
TREND A LITTLE LOWER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHTER
AND VARIABLE 08Z-14Z SATURDAY, THEN SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AFTER 14Z SATURDAY INTO END OF PERIOD. WINDS AT PEQ REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGHOUT PERIOD. MVFR CIGS IN BROKEN TO
SCATTERED STRATUS AT TERMINALS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z-20Z TODAY, WITH VFR CIGS EVERYWHERE ELSE.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS IN MIST AND
FOG DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING FROM TERRELL COUNTY INTO STOCKTON
PLATEAU, INCLUDING FST. IF FOG OR MIST DEVELOPS, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT TERMINALS OVER STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM
08Z-12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, LEFT OUT MENTION OF
MIST OR FOG IN TAFS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER
DECREASING AFTER 14Z SATURDAY INTO END OF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 23 54 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 22 53 28 72 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 28 51 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 26 57 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 26 54 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 20 54 29 69 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 28 64 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 24 54 30 70 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA 25 53 31 70 / 0 10 0 0
WINK 25 54 29 72 / 0 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94
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