215
FXUS64 KMAF 220456
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1056 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM SE AZ/SW NM INTO
TX/OK PH - NORTH OF THE AREA - THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS
WEEKEND. GIVEN FARTHER PROXIMITY OF HIGHER MOISTURE, LIFT, AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE SHORT WAVE WILL REINFORCE TROUGHING AND
SLOW DOWN PACE OF THE SLOWLY EASING LONGER WAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE RIDGING IN
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS BEGINS TO BUILD AND EXPAND FROM THE PACIFIC SW
INTO DESERT SW. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALOFT WILL BE
A DELAY TO A MORE SHARPLY WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNTIL SUNDAY.
COARSER AND HIGHER-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY, BUT HAVE MORE SPREAD FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
SATURATED NIGHT. GFS HAS WARMER LOWS THAN CMC AND ICON, AND NBM HAS
TRENDED COLDER IN MOST RECENT RUNS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE CMC AND ICON. HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM
3KM, FV3 HI-RES, WRF-ARW/ARW2 ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT, WHILE COARSER-RES
MODELS LIKE THE GFS PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WENT WITH NBM FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS. THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
FOG. THIS IS MOST LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM TERRELL COUNTY INTO
EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN BASIN, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY
PATCHY COVERAGE IS INDICATED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
ONE FACTOR THAT IN FAVOR OF MIST AND FOG FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING
IS RH ABOVE 85% NORTHEAST OF A CULBERSON COUNTY TO NORTHERN BREWSTER
COUNTY LINE FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS
LESS THAN 5F IN THESE REGIONS. RAP IS FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH EXTENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES, WITH REGIONS OF MIST AND FOG
INDICATED IN FORT STOCKTON SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FACTOR IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS ANY MAJOR DISTURBANCES
MIXING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. GRIDS INDICATE 5%-10% OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING IN MOST RECENT RUNS, BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT REMAIN ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE, SO NO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT WE ARE WELL PAST
THE FIRST WINTER FREEZE.
OTHER THAN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE GENERAL OUTLOOK IS FOR A WARMING
TREND TODAY INTO TOMORROW, WITH THE WARMING TREND MORE DISTINCT FOR
LOWS THAN HIGHS. WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY SOUTHEASTERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHERLY, WAA WILL BE WEAK DUE TO LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND TIME
NEEDED FOR RECOVERY OF THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, FOLLOWING THIS WEEK'S COLD AIR
OUTBREAK. TODAY HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE NORTHEAST,
EAST, AND SOUTHEAST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S SE NM PLAINS INTO MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN, MID TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THIS REGION AND NORTHEAST AND EAST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS,LOWER TO UPPER 60S
FROM PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY. LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, 10
TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE SE NM PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT
WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S, TEENS IN NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND
NEAR FREEZING LOWS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO EASTERN TERRELL COUNTY.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S IN
PRESIDIO VALLEY. SATURDAY, HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
NORTHEAST, EAST, AND SOUTHEAST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND NEAR AVERAGE
SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID 50S NORTHEAST
OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. EVEN IN WARMEST SPOTS OF PRESIDIO VALLEY, HIGHS MAY STILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ARE FORECAST, LOWER TO MID 30S NORTHEAST, EAST, AND
SOUTHEAST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS WITH EXCEPTION TO UPPER 20S ALONG PECOS
RIVER AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN WITH
LIGHTER DRAINAGE WINDS, AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE LOWS FALL BELOW 40F IN THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY, SO CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FROM TODAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEE MORE IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SUNDAY, MODEST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED INCREASING
THICKNESSES, WHICH ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WARMING TREND ALREADY IN THE PROCESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A
WEEK AS HIGHS TOP OUT ~ 5-7 F OVER CLIMATOLOGY.
THICKNESSES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DESPITE A TROUGH APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST AND ATTENUATING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT, MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST AS HIGHS PLATEAU A PLEASANT ~ 12-15
F ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO INTRUDE UPON THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT TO TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND DOWN FURTHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY,
THE WORST THIS FRONT LOOKS TO DO WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN HIGHS TAP
OUT AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT WARMUP RESUMES FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN IS DRIER THAN A MOTH SANDWICH, AND LONG-
TERM GRIDS STAY DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z TOMORROW. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
SHIFT WESTERLY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 24 54 29 71 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 21 53 27 72 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 26 51 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 25 57 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 26 53 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 21 53 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 27 63 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 25 53 29 70 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA 25 54 30 70 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 25 55 28 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13
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