804
FXUS64 KMAF 270840
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 333 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
- THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) CONFIDENCE FOR MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING AT LEAST A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTED MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE 50S) AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS TO THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS LEFTOVER
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER BREWSTER AND TERRELL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST AS OVERCAST SKIES GREATLY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THURSDAY,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE POPS DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK
TO BE IN/AROUND THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS WHERE
GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. THERE IS A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN BREWSTER/TERRELL COUNTIES
THURSDAY, WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MAY GO SEVERE. OVERCAST SKIES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. POPS
DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN KEEP THURSDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 40S IN
HIGHER TERRAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING THICKNESS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE AND SUNNY SKIES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH 90S ALONG MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
-GREENING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
JUST AS SOON AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM THAT IS BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION EXITS, ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS THE FOLD
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MUCH DRIER AND BRING BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. INCREASED
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY AND THIS WIND WILL WARM THE REGION INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS KNOCKS TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
MEDIUM TO LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A WARM START TO APRIL AND THAT'S
NO FOOLING. BROAD RIDGING MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS
HOLDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREAWIDE FOR THOSE DAYS AND WHILE THIS IS NOT
RECORD HIGH TERRITORY, IT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
APRIL. KMAF, FOR EXAMPLE, HAS AN AVERAGE HIGH OF 77F ON APRIL 1ST.
LOWS RESPOND SIMILARLY, STAYING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THINGS
DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES STAYING MEAGER (<10%).
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (40-80% CHANCE)
BY MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE HIT OR MISS AT ALL TAF SITES. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DROP OFF DRASTICALLY BY THE VERY END OF THIS
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 55 81 57 / 60 50 10 0
CARLSBAD 75 50 86 55 / 50 30 0 0
DRYDEN 72 57 85 57 / 70 70 20 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 55 86 58 / 70 50 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 51 79 54 / 50 40 0 0
HOBBS 72 49 82 51 / 50 30 0 0
MARFA 71 48 80 49 / 60 40 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 54 82 57 / 60 50 10 0
ODESSA 69 55 82 57 / 50 50 10 0
WINK 72 52 84 52 / 50 40 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...55
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