574
FXUS64 KMAF 282330
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS, VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ONGOING EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH,
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASE IN
THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. TO THE WEST, THE
NEXT TROUGH HAS ALREADY MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST.
OVERNIGHT, A 40+KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS MIXING WILL
COMBINE WITH A FETCH OF HIGH CLOUDS TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING,
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS 10-15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
VEER WINDS OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST, W/THE NAM
DEVELOPING A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE OVER THE GUADALUPES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS MARGINAL, AS DO ANY HIGH WINDS THAT MAY
DEVELOP. SINCE WIND SPEEDS LOOK RIGHT ON THE FENCE, WE'LL ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH, AND LET THE MID SHIFT MAKE THE CALL ON AN
UPGRADE. REGARDLESS, AND CONSIDERING LACK OF RAINFALL TODAY'S
RATHER MEAGER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BLDU IS EXPECTED INVOF
THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ADD A DOWNSLOPE WARMING
COMPONENT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHICH SHOULD TOP OUT ~ 10-12 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. THESE INCREASED WINDS/TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, ONLY SANS LLJ AND
2-3 F COOLER BEHIND A WEAK PAC FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER TRANS PECOS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WARM WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE
EXTENDED AS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOVE 5760 METERS FOR MOST
OF W TX AND 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESSES ABOVE 570 DECAMETERS ARE
PRESENT. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER COMPARED TO
RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 50
KNOTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE FROM 500 MB TO THE
TROPOPAUSE, WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BELOW 850
MB. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELONGATED NEARLY
HORIZONTAL ORIENTED AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, SUGGESTIVE OF SPEED
SHEAR, AS 700 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AND VORTICITY CHARTS DEPICT A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE FROM SE NM INTO THE GUADALUPES. AS A
RESULT, WINDS IN THE NBM HAVE TRENDED HIGHER, WITH GRIDS SHOWING
WINDS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GUADALUPES AND PORTIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. IN ENSEMBLES, A
40% TO 50% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH IS PRESENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING IN ENSEMBLES UNDER PREVAILING
WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE WINDS EXTENDING FROM W TX INTO WEST-CENTRAL
TX. THESE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY FOR
PERMIAN BASIN INTO BIG BEND AS WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST SUNDAY, BUT THEN STALLING EAST OF EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL DOWN TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY, TO MID 40S MARFA PLATEAU AND MOST OF
CULBERSON COUNTY INTO SE NM PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN, AND MID TO
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE, NEAR AVERAGE NORTHEAST OF PECOS RIVER AND 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% PROBABILITY OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE
MID 30S ANYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT, MONDAY IS STILL ON TRACK
TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS 4 TO 7 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 70S TO
UPPER 70S NORTHEAST OF PECOS RIVER, TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER AND NORTH OF
RIO GRANDE BASINS, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OR ABOVE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. DESPITE THE GREATEST COOLING
NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER, WINDS EVERYWHERE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL STILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF W
TX, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. ENSEMBLES DEPICT A
90% OR HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HIGHS RISING ABOVE 85F BUT STAYING
BELOW 90F OVER THE BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY, SO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY TRIM 90F+ DEGREE READINGS IN THESE REGIONS
AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS VEER BACK TO SOUTHERLY, AS
WAA ALLOWS LOWS TO ONLY FALL 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LOWS UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN.
TUESDAY IS ALSO ON TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED AS
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER W TX. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS 12 TO 14 DEGREES ALONG
THE LLTR WITH HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG AXIS OF LLTR FROM
STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TO MID 80S
SE NM PLAINS, MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND MID 80S TO
MID 90S ELSEWHERE, WITH WARMEST READINGS OVER STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE BASINS. A 60% TO 80% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE 85F
OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO PERMIAN BASIN IS INDICATED IN THE
EUROPEAN ENS AND GRANDE ENSEMBLE FOR TUESDAY, WITH UP TO A 50%
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE 95F IN THE BIG BEND IN THOSE SAME
ENSEMBLES. WINDS WILL ALSO AGAIN BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DIGS INTO THE AREA
AND HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CLIP THE AREA.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 40
MPH OVER GUADALUPES INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OR EVEN 50 MPH OVER EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERNMOST EDDY COUNTY AND SURROUNDING EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS REGION
IN LATER FORECAST PRODUCTS.
A LOW (10% TO 30%) PROBABILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH
GUADALUPES INTO EDDY COUNTY PLAINS IS INDICATED IN ENSEMBLES AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS TROUGHING MOVES AWAY. COLD FRONTS IN THE WAKE OF TROUGHING
AGAIN COOL HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE RANGING FROM UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S, LOWER 70S IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AND 90S WITHIN A HUNDRED MILES OF THE RIO GRANDE, WHILE
LOWS STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S RANGE. HIGHS HAVE TRENDED LOWER 4 TO 5 DEGREES AND LOWS BY 2
TO 4 DEGREES DURING THE MIDDLE INTO END OF NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO
RUNS FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, AND THURSDAY IS NOW APPEARING TO
BE ANOTHER COOLER DAY ON PAR WITH MONDAY FOR LEA COUNTY AND
PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 80F. WPC SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, AND MODELS COULD
BE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING
WINDS WITH THIS FRONT AS A RESULT. RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
REMAIN NEAR ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN 10% TO
20% POPS OVER EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN ARE INDICATED. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING
GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND A TROUGH ONLY
DIGGING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 35F WITH A DRYLINE
REMAINING MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 45F ATTEMPT
TO ADVECT NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND TERRELL
COUNTY INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN, AND WHERE
THERE IS A 40% TO 50% PROBABILITY OF DEW POINT TEMPERATURES UP TO
50F FROM MIDLAND-ODESSA DOWN INTO FORT STOCKTON ON TUESDAY
MORNING. NONETHELESS, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES LARGELY BELOW 50F
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL DRY, WHICH ALONG WITH WARM
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DRY OUT FUELS AND MAINTAIN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK, AS THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION DESCRIBES IN
MORE DETAIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT,
THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A LACK OF WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY MEANS THAT FUELS REMAIN VERY
DRY. ERCS STAY ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR ALL BUT THE BIG BEND,
WHICH RECEIVED WETTING RAINS FROM THE RAINFALL EVENT THIS WEEK.
MIN RH TODAY FALLS BELOW CRITICAL 15% WEST OF EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN INTO EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU AND TERRELL COUNTY. HOWEVER,
SINCE 20-FT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, AN RFD RATHER THAN A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY
OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 MPH OR GREATER, MIN RH BELOW CRITICAL, AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, YIELDING RFTIS IN THE 3 TO 5
RANGE. HIGH JOINT PROBABILITIES OF WESTERLY 20-FT WINDS ABOVE 20
MPH, MIN RH BELOW CRITICAL, AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
YIELD RFTIS IN THE 5 TO 7 RANGE FROM CULBERSON COUNTY AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND UPPER TRANS PECOS
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN. THIS PROMPTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THESE REGIONS,
WHICH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IN THE MOST RECENT
FORECAST PACKAGE. LIGHTER 20-FT WINDS BELOW 20 MPH EVERYWHERE
ASIDE FROM GUADALUPES INTO EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING KEEP RFTIS BELOW 4
EVERYWHERE ASIDE FROM THESE REGIONS. HIGH JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
MIN RH BELOW CRITICAL 15%, 20-FT WINDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH, AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY PROMPT FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
FOR THESE REGIONS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH DUE TO SPARSENESS OF
FUELS IN THOSE REGIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DECREASE WITH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWING AN EARLIER, WEAKER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH HIGH ERCS AND MIN RH STAYING BELOW CRITICAL 15%, AS
AIR FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA REMAINS VERY DRY AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING THIS EXISTING DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 20-FT WINDS STAY CLOSE TO 20 MPH
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GUADALUPES INTO SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS
WHERE RFTIS REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. TUESDAY, AS A LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS UP TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY FOLLOWED MIN RH BELOW
CRITICAL, AND 20-FT WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH AT THE BASE OF A
PASSING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN, RFTIS INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 7 RANGE ONCE AGAIN
FROM WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN, WITH HIGHEST RFTIS IN 7 TO 8 RANGE INDICATED
FROM CULBERSON COUNTY INTO LEA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND MIN RH BELOW CRITICAL BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER RISK, AS
RFTIS ABOVE 4 CONTRACT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY, AND THE GUADALUPES INTO EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS LATE NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EVEN ON COOLER AND LESS WINDY DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS, WHERE ERCS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE GREATER THAN A 60% PROBABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON OF MIN RH BELOW CRITICAL WEST OF 102W LONGITUDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 58 90 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 57 81 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 56 93 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 58 90 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 52 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 50 79 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 56 86 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 56 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 53 87 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
SATURDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-
WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR CHAVES
PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...95
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