644
FXUS64 KMAF 292255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE GUADALUPES.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AS WELL AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A THICK DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE KEPT WINDS MOSTLY IN CHECK, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY NEAR EPZ
AND WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. BECAUSE OF
THIS, WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THAT BEING
SAID, WE STILL EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ROLLS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THERE
JUST IN TIME TO MIX SOME HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AS THE FRONT MEETS UP THE
A DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, LIMITING
THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT, EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S NORTH OF I-20 AND 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY, FEATURING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. TUESDAY, TROUGHING ONCE
AGAIN BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL JET, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A THERMAL RIDGE LOOKING TO SET UP OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. SIMILARLY, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SOME LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. AS
A RESULT, LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) MAKE A REAPPEARANCE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
IS NOT GREAT AS FAR AS THIS SCENARIO IS CONCERNED, AND THINGS
STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE, SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR MOST THROUGH THE WEEK (UPPER 80S AND 90S
ON TUESDAY), ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OF COURSE,
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
(INCLUDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES NEAR THE
BIG BEND).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A COLD FRONT BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLDU
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND VISIBILITY WILL CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
RED FLAG CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE MAJORITY OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
FURTHERMORE, BREEZY, DRY, AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING PLAINS
(80% CHANCE IT IS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING TONIGHT). WINDS
CALM GREATLY ON MONDAY, GIVING US A TEMPORARY RESPITE IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP NORTH AND WILL, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED LOW MINIMUM RHS, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL RIDGE, AND ERCS CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PECOS), ALLOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN THAT AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND IN THE MOUNTAINS), ONCE AGAIN YIELDING NEAR-CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ELEVATED CONCERNS PERSIST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW MINIMUM RHS), THOUGH SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) AND SOMEWHAT BETTER MINIMUM RHS (20-30%)
RETURN TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SPRANG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 55 84 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 50 80 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 60 90 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 57 85 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 50 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 47 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 49 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 55 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 55 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 50 84 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EDDY PLAINS-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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