692
FXUS64 KMAF 300524
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE GUADALUPES.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AS WELL AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A THICK DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE KEPT WINDS MOSTLY IN CHECK, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY NEAR EPZ
AND WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. BECAUSE OF
THIS, WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THAT BEING
SAID, WE STILL EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ROLLS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THERE
JUST IN TIME TO MIX SOME HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AS THE FRONT MEETS UP THE
A DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, LIMITING
THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT, EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S NORTH OF I-20 AND 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY, FEATURING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. TUESDAY, TROUGHING ONCE
AGAIN BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL JET, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A THERMAL RIDGE LOOKING TO SET UP OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. SIMILARLY, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SOME LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. AS
A RESULT, LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) MAKE A REAPPEARANCE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
IS NOT GREAT AS FAR AS THIS SCENARIO IS CONCERNED, AND THINGS
STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE, SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR MOST THROUGH THE WEEK (UPPER 80S AND 90S
ON TUESDAY), ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OF COURSE,
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
(INCLUDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES NEAR THE
BIG BEND).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS PICK UP BY
LATE-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 80 48 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 90 58 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 85 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 44 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 76 49 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 50 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 84 48 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EDDY PLAINS-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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