886
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE GUADALUPES.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AS WELL AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A FEW MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MOIST, THUS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (70S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS). DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
(PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). HIGH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS MIXING TRANSFERS
MOMENTUM DOWNWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP MIXING
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG
IN THE MOUNTAINS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AS SUCH, WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S NORTH OF I-20 AND
50S TO THE SOUTH. MONDAY'S HIGHS COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
NORTH OF I-20 AND 80S TO THE SOUTH (70S IN HIGHER TERRAINS).
-GREENING
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY ALONG THE BASE OF A POTENT MID TO
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH LIKELY IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND LOCATIONS INTO
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS/VAN HORN CORRIDOR/DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A HIGH
WIND EVENT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND
POTENTIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT EDDY NM COUNTY PLAINS
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35-45 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
(POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE
MTNS) MAY MATERIALIZE WITH A DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN INTO THE TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S (AND AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE). FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ALSO RAMP UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, INCREASED WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR REGION.
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHING GENERALLY LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN INTO THE TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE IN THE 80S (PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS PECOS)
AND 90S (BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE INTO TERRELL COUNTY). SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS/NORTHWEST BASIN.
OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A DIFLUENT/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PUSH
INTO OUR REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE UPPER
PATTERN FAVORS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN OUR REGION, THERE IS SOME
QUESTION TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH
SIGNAL FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES (30-50% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL)
FAVORED ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MOVE
FORWARD IN TIME, BUT IT IS AT LEAST A GLIMPSE OF HOPE FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS PICK UP BY
LATE-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, AND CULBERSON
COUNTY TODAY GIVEN INCREASING WESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT, AND
ERC VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVER THESE AREAS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TODAY GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER
WIND SPEEDS AND HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
ALL AREAS NOT IN THE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. A LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS RAMP BACK UP IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY EITHER LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 47 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 81 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 90 58 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 85 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 76 49 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 49 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 84 48 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EDDY PLAINS-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55
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