614
FXUS64 KMAF 302303
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY (FOR MOST) AND
WEDNESDAY (FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS).
- RAIN CHANCES (10-30% GENERALLY, 40-50% FOR NORTHERNMOST
LOCATIONS) AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY IN WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH A
BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT BRINGING LOWS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 50S TO THE
SOUTH. THE FRONT WASHES OUT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE MOSTLY IN THE
70S NORTH WITH 80S AND EVEN SOME 90S TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING. LOWS WILL STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
BY TUESDAY, A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS WILL ALLOW FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE ADJACENT PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THEREFORE, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). HIGH WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE GUADALUPES TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS).
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A DIFLUENCE ZONE LOOKS TO PRECEDE THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING
US SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. OUR FIRST RAIN CHANCES (10-40%) APPEAR AROUND
THIS TIME, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING (20-50%)
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (10-30%) AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THOUGH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED RAINFALL TOTALS UP
SINCE YESTERDAY, MANY QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN PERTAINING TO HOW
FAST/HOW AMPLIFIED THE SYSTEM WILL BE (LATEST GUIDANCE IS FASTER),
THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM/BEST LIFT (THE EURO IS FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS), AS WELL AS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE.
TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IN ANY CASE, ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD, USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
MOST, WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING TUESDAY (90S ACROSS EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONTINUES WITH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO KMAF AROUND SUNRISE TURNING WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE OTHER TERMINALS, BUT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS
STILL EXPECTED AT KCNM AND KHOB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
RED FLAG CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THOUGH DRY WEATHER CONTINUES,
WINDS CALM GREATLY ON MONDAY, GIVING US A TEMPORARY RESPITE IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP NORTH. THIS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED
LOW MINIMUM RHS, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE, AND ERCS CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PECOS), WILL ALLOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT IS WORTH
NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT A COUPLE OF MODELS (THE NAM, IN PARTICULAR)
INDICATE A LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW THICK IT IS/HOW MANY BREAKS WE GET IN
THE LAYER, FIRE WEATHER MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS), ONCE AGAIN YIELDING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOW-END ELEVATED CONCERNS PERSIST THURSDAY
(MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW MINIMUM RHS), BUT BY FRIDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE
BEGINS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION TO BRING MUCH OF THE AREA
ABOVE CRITICAL MIN RHS (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS).
WETTING RAINS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW AT THIS TIME (10-40% GENERALLY, CLOSER TO 50% FOR NORTHERNMOST
LOCATIONS).
SPRANG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 47 78 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 47 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 58 88 56 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 56 84 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 49 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 45 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 48 78 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 49 80 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 50 80 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 49 83 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EDDY PLAINS-
SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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