564
FXUS64 KMAF 310521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY (FOR MOST) AND
WEDNESDAY (FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS).
- RAIN CHANCES (10-30% GENERALLY, 40-50% FOR NORTHERNMOST
LOCATIONS) AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY IN WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH A
BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT BRINGING LOWS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 50S TO THE
SOUTH. THE FRONT WASHES OUT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE MOSTLY IN THE
70S NORTH WITH 80S AND EVEN SOME 90S TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING. LOWS WILL STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
BY TUESDAY, A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS WILL ALLOW FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE ADJACENT PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THEREFORE, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). HIGH WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE GUADALUPES TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS).
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A DIFLUENCE ZONE LOOKS TO PRECEDE THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING
US SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. OUR FIRST RAIN CHANCES (10-40%) APPEAR AROUND
THIS TIME, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING (20-50%)
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (10-30%) AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THOUGH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED RAINFALL TOTALS UP
SINCE YESTERDAY, MANY QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN PERTAINING TO HOW
FAST/HOW AMPLIFIED THE SYSTEM WILL BE (LATEST GUIDANCE IS FASTER),
THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM/BEST LIFT (THE EURO IS FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS), AS WELL AS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE.
TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IN ANY CASE, ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD, USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
MOST, WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING TUESDAY (90S ACROSS EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS BEGIN IN A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY BY AROUND THE NEXT (11/12Z)
TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 78 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 82 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 88 56 96 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 84 58 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 74 53 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 79 50 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 78 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 80 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 80 56 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 50 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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