620
FXUS64 KMAF 311950
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION
TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN PLEASANT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT NOSED ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR RANGE WITHIN THE 60S TO 80S, A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL BE ZONAL (EAST TO WEST),
WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES, A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES, GRADUALLY TURNING OUR WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE TODAY'S
FRONT, THESE WINDS KEEP TONIGHT'S LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD
OF THE AREA, KICKING UP STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A MAJOR
IMPACT WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DUST, POTENTIALLY DENSE
FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITY AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER TRANS PECOS HELP HEAT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. SOME LOCATIONS NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE LOOK TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS TO PROVIDE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA OVER THE ENTIRE REGION (MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION).
WINDS TAPER DOWN LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN. LOWS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DROP INTO
THE 40S, 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK HELPING
WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SE NM. WHILE WEDNESDAY WON'T BE AS WINDY AS TOMORROW, WE STILL
EXPECT HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
IN THE EDDY CO. PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE (SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW). WHILE THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NORTH TO
THE 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THURSDAY, BUT WITHOUT THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING CLOUDS WE SHOULD
SEE MUCH LESS WIND AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE UNTIL WE CAN PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE. THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT WHILE A COLD FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA (LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN). A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF MEXICO AND INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY THIS
TIME WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVEN INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
CLOSER TO THE BEST LIFT. IT'S A LITTLE EARLY TO DISCUSS STORM MODE,
BUT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND
MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, NOT ALL OF OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 MOST LIKELY TO BE
DRY-SLOTTED.
UPPER TROUGHING REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDY, CHILLY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S AT BEST
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. IT MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH, IF WE GET THE
MOISTURE, TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL, OF
COURSE, CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
NEEDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLIER WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. BLOWING DUST AND
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME ISSUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WHILE VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGS HIGH WINDS, MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND CRITICAL RHS TO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX EAST AS AN
INTENSE JET ARRIVES AND HELPS TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING RHS TO FALL MOSTLY
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. A COUPLE MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS AND BLOWING DUST WHICH WILL HELP SHADE
FUELS SOMEWHAT. THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF A FIRE-EFFECTIVE LLTR AND
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN
WHERE RFTI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE EXTREMELY CRITICAL (~7). THIS
IS WHERE IA AND POSSIBLY A LARGE FIRE IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE
CURRENT FUELSCAPE AND EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND POOR RECOVERY TO BRING YET ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 57 92 54 82 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 54 84 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 59 97 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 58 94 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 76 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 50 84 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 49 84 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 57 90 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 57 89 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 50 91 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY TO 4 AM CDT
/3 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-
MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-
REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...95
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