466
FXUS64 KMAF 231042
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS YET AGAIN)
- OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS-PECOS
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM...LATHER, RINSE, REPEAT. WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
DRYLINE MID-CWA THIS AFTERNOON, W/MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
EAST OF THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN DEPICT MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES 7-9 C/KM, W/DEEP-LYR SHEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, ONLY
W/THE ADDITION OF MULTIPLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION KNOCKING ABOUT. HIGHS SHOULD COME IN ~ 7-9 F ABOVE
NORMAL.
TONIGHT, CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND/OR MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER 40+KT LLJ REDEVELOPS, W/MIXING AND
DEBRIS CLOUD KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 10-12 F ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY, ONLY HIGHS MAY BE A
DEGREE COOLER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
YET AGAIN, BY THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. BEHIND THEM, SUBTLE MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS,
THIS WILL RATHER QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.
DIFLUENCE AND WEAK PULSES WITHIN THE MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL SMALLER-SCALE INFLUENCES TO OUR NORTH (EX:
REMNANT BOUNDARIES), WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW STORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHILE THE DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING (AND RAIN CHANCES) WILL BE
FOUND IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN IN PARTICULAR (30-60%
CHANCES). LIKE TODAY AND THURSDAY, STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S, MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG) AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR
(30-40 KTS GENERALLY, UP TO 45-50 KTS). OF COURSE, DETAILS WILL
BE REFINED CLOSER TO TIME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE DRYLINE MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST (THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT AS TO JUST HOW FAR EAST). A LARGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT GIVEN THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
EASTERNMOST LOCATIONS/COUNTIES (10-30% CHANCES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS). OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
NEARS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE/A TOUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S LOOK TO RETURN ON THE BACK OF THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO KMAF/KHOB OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD EVERYWHERE BUT KCNM, W/BASES 4.5-8 KFT AGL.
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE, BUT CHANCE
ARE TOO LOW AND AREAL UNCERTAINTY TOO HIGH FOR A MENTION ATTM.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN KMAF NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 64 84 62 / 30 30 40 10
CARLSBAD 92 56 90 54 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 86 64 87 65 / 20 30 40 20
FORT STOCKTON 90 65 90 64 / 30 30 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 83 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 88 59 87 57 / 10 20 20 0
MARFA 86 54 85 53 / 20 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 64 85 63 / 20 20 30 10
ODESSA 86 64 85 64 / 20 20 30 10
WINK 91 63 91 62 / 20 10 20 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44
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