976
FXUS64 KMAF 240724
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
224 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS YET AGAIN)
- OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS-PECOS
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE LLJ ISN'T AS STRONG
TONIGHT...~ 25-30+KTS ACCORDING TO THE KMAF VWP...BUT IS
NEVERTHELESS REPLENISHING THE BOUNDARY LAYER W/RICH GULF MOISTURE.
DEWPOINT AT KMAF AT 07Z IS A JUICY 64 F. SURFACE OBS/MESOANALYSIS
SHOW THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED TO OUR WESTERN BORDER, SETTING UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION. AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS MIXING EAST TODAY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST DEVELOP MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG, AND DCAPES OF 1500 J/KG, IN DEEP-LYR SHEAR 35-45 KTS. MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL EASILY BE 7-9 C/KM. IN OTHER WORDS, LATHER, RINSE,
AND REPEAT. W/MULTIPLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
KNOCKING ABOUT, THE ONLY PLACE CONVECTION CAN BE RULED OUT IS WEST
OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE ~ 5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT, A LLJ SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP.
MIXING AND DEBRIS CLOUD WILL RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY, ONLY HIGHS WILL INCREASE BY 2-3 F.
BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH, CLOSER TO A
COLD FRONT, SO THE THREAT WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH THIS FORECAST.
YET AGAIN, BY THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. BEHIND THEM, SUBTLE MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS,
THIS WILL RATHER QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.
DIFLUENCE AND WEAK PULSES WITHIN THE MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL SMALLER-SCALE INFLUENCES TO OUR NORTH (EX:
REMNANT BOUNDARIES), WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW STORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHILE THE DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING (AND RAIN CHANCES) WILL BE
FOUND IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN IN PARTICULAR (30-60%
CHANCES). LIKE TODAY AND THURSDAY, STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S, MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG) AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR
(30-40 KTS GENERALLY, UP TO 45-50 KTS). OF COURSE, DETAILS WILL
BE REFINED CLOSER TO TIME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE DRYLINE MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST (THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT AS TO JUST HOW FAR EAST). A LARGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT GIVEN THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
EASTERNMOST LOCATIONS/COUNTIES (10-30% CHANCES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS). OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
NEARS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE/A TOUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S LOOK TO RETURN ON THE BACK OF THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT KMAF/KHOB,
BUT SCATTER OUT BY NOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD
CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES RANGING FROM ~
4.5 KFT AGL IN THE EAST TO 8 KFT AGL ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 63 88 62 / 40 10 20 40
CARLSBAD 90 55 91 61 / 0 0 10 50
DRYDEN 86 64 89 66 / 30 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 89 64 91 65 / 30 10 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 81 58 83 59 / 0 0 10 30
HOBBS 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 60
MARFA 85 54 87 57 / 10 0 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 63 87 63 / 20 10 10 40
ODESSA 85 64 87 63 / 20 10 10 40
WINK 90 62 92 66 / 10 0 10 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44
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