444
FXUS64 KMAF 240921
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
421 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 420 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-
PECOS
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WITHIN W-SW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A DRYLINE IS LOCATED FROM
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AS OF 330 PM CDT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG, AND LONG AND NEARLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, WHICH WILL FAVOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL
SIZE (OR LARGER) AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT OVER THE
STOCKTON PLATEAU THIS EVENING, BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
PROBABLY A SIMILAR SCENARIO SETTING UP ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ONCE AGAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY
RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT IN
THE 80S OVER MOST AREAS, EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. DIFLUENCE AND WEAK PULSES WITHIN THE MID-
TO-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, COUPLED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA, ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA (40-70% RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN). YET AGAIN, STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
(SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S, MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG)
AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR (30-40 KTS GENERALLY, UP TO 45 KTS).
THE DRYLINE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS BY SUNDAY,
THEN AS FAR AS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY. A LARGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (THOUGH THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA). GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE, STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES (10-30% CHANCES FOR THESE LOCATIONS). OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM NEARS AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE LOW
RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS-PECOS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE/A TOUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S LOOK TO RETURN ON THE BACK OF THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENCROACH ON
THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, BRINGING TEMPERATURES A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER KMAF/KHOB, AS WELL AS A LITTLE FOG, BUT
WILL SCATTER OUT BY NOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD
CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES RANGING FROM ~
4.5 KFT AGL IN THE EAST TO 7 KFT AGL ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 63 88 62 / 40 10 20 40
CARLSBAD 90 55 91 61 / 0 0 10 50
DRYDEN 86 64 89 66 / 30 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 89 64 91 65 / 30 10 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 81 58 83 59 / 0 0 10 30
HOBBS 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 60
MARFA 85 54 87 57 / 10 0 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 63 87 63 / 20 10 10 40
ODESSA 85 64 87 63 / 20 10 10 40
WINK 90 62 92 66 / 10 0 10 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44
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