049
FXUS64 KMAF 241822
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
122 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 122 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-
PECOS
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE, WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TRACKING GENERALLY EAST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE ALONG THE DRYLINE, AND MAY PRODUCE IMPACTS
SUCH AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AGAIN FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY TRACK
INTO WESTERN TEXAS BY LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK PULSES WITHIN THE MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, COUPLED WITH
SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA,
WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AGAIN GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRYLINE, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE DRYLINE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS BY
SUNDAY, THEN AS FAR AS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY. A LARGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME (THOUGH
THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA). GIVEN THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE, STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES (10-30% CHANCES FOR THESE LOCATIONS).
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM NEARS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MORE LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS-PECOS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE/A TOUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S LOOK TO RETURN ON THE BACK OF THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TACK THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY LIFTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS BUT CAM'S SO FAR ARE
ONLY SHOWING SPARSE CONVECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND, WILL NOT ADD
ANY MENTION OF STORMS AT THIS POINT. IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP, WE
CAN QUICKLY ADD A MENTION. OTHERWISE, SOME GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A REPEAT OF SOME LOW CLOUDINESS SPREADING
BACK UP THE PECOS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AROUND KMAF LOOKS
REASONABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 86 63 78 / 10 10 40 60
CARLSBAD 56 90 61 85 / 0 10 40 40
DRYDEN 65 88 65 87 / 20 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 65 90 66 89 / 10 10 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS 58 83 59 81 / 0 10 30 20
HOBBS 58 87 59 78 / 0 10 50 70
MARFA 54 86 56 87 / 0 20 10 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 87 63 80 / 10 10 40 50
ODESSA 64 87 64 80 / 10 10 40 50
WINK 64 92 66 87 / 0 10 30 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44
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