922
FXUS64 KMAF 250812
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 311 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
- SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-
PECOS
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES FRIDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DRYLINE IS SET TO POSITION ITSELF OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
PANHANDLE. PROVIDED AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
DRYLINE, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH THE THREATS REMAINING LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS PER THE SPC, COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE MORE SCATTERED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHILE ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE REST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TOWARD
PECOS AND REEVES COUNTIES. POPS RANGE FROM 20%-40% FRIDAY EVENING,
BEST CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY'S
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 90S. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
60S.
SATURDAY, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS A
TROUGH OUT WEST CONTINUES TO INCH ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH AND HELPS TRIGGER
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH. POPS SATURDAY
RANGE BETWEEN 20%-60%. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN, CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THIS BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AND RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHILE EVERYONE ELSE
RANGES WITHIN THE 80S AND 90S. LOWS SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA.
THE DRYLINE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS,
THEN EVEN FURTHER EAST BY MONDAY, WHEN IT SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RESULTS IN LOW (20%-30%) RAIN CHANCES
STRETCHING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN 10%-30% RAIN CHANCES SPANNING FROM THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES, THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS
BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FOR
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
BY TUESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN, RESULTING IN HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S AND RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 20%-50% DURNING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S STICK AROUND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARM UP A
TOUCH ALONG THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY,
WHERE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. VCTS IS BEGINNING TO EXIT MAF WITH TSRA MOVING OUT OF FST
IN AN HOUR OR TWO. SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MOVE BACK WEST INTO THE
REGION. THESE CEILINGS LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AGAIN CAUSE IMPACTS TO EASTERN TERMINALS, BUT TIME AND LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 63 78 62 / 10 40 60 30
CARLSBAD 90 61 85 59 / 10 40 40 20
DRYDEN 88 65 87 65 / 10 10 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 90 66 89 65 / 10 20 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 83 59 81 59 / 10 30 20 10
HOBBS 87 59 78 59 / 10 50 70 30
MARFA 86 56 87 56 / 20 10 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 87 63 80 63 / 10 40 50 30
ODESSA 87 64 80 63 / 10 40 50 30
WINK 92 66 87 64 / 10 30 40 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91
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