021
FXUS64 KMAF 251756
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS WEEK
FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE BAJA,
TRANSITIONING FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME, KMAF VWP SHOWS A 40 KT LLJ
HAS CRANKED UP, PUMPING ABUNDANT RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY. BY 12Z, 60+F DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS. THIS IS FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN BY LATE MORNING. TO THE WEST, CAMS SHARPEN A WEAK
DRYLINE UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS IS DEPICTED IN WEST TEXAS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, COUPLED WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7-9 C/KM. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, W/LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. 0-3 KM HELICITIES ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO 5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT, A LLJ SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP,
W/CAMS SUGGESTING CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO A MCS AND MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST BY LATE EVENING. THE LLJ WILL KEEP MIXING IN PLAY,
COMBINING W/DEBRIS CLOUD TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A PLEASANT 8-10 F
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY, LATHER, RINSE, AND REPEAT. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT UP
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN, W/ABUNDANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST GENERATING SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, W/MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES A BIT COOLER YET SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL, AND SIMILAR
BULK SHEAR TO WHAT'S ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN TODAY'S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE BAJA,
TRANSITIONING FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME, KMAF VWP SHOWS A 40 KT LLJ
HAS CRANKED UP, PUMPING ABUNDANT RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY. BY 12Z, 60+F DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS. THIS IS FORECAST TO ADVECT AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN BY LATE MORNING. TO THE WEST, CAMS SHARPEN A WEAK
DRYLINE UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS IS DEPICTED IN WEST TEXAS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, COUPLED WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7-9 C/KM. AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, W/LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. 0-3 KM HELICITIES ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO 5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT, A LLJ SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP,
W/CAMS SUGGESTING CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO A MCS AND MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST BY LATE EVENING. THE LLJ WILL KEEP MIXING IN PLAY,
COMBINING W/DEBRIS CLOUD TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A PLEASANT 8-10 F
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY, LATHER, RINSE, AND REPEAT. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT UP
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN, W/ABUNDANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST GENERATING SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, W/MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES A BIT COOLER YET SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL, AND SIMILAR
BULK SHEAR TO WHAT'S ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THAT OF THE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
CONTINUES THURSDAY: A DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND, WEAK
PULSES IN THE QUASI-ZONAL/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE OVERHEAD, A LOW-
LEVEL JET HELPS FEED IN GULF MOISTURE, AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OFF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG, LAPSE RATES OF 7-9 C/KM, SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM SHEAR (30-40 KTS GENERALLY, UP TO 45 KTS), AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS-PECOS. STORM CHANCES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-60%, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS.
WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
THIS QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY (20-50%) AS MORE WEAK PULSES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENCOURAGE ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. LIKE
THURSDAY, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH
PRIMARY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS.
DRYLINE POSITIONING BECOMES A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY DEPICT IT BEING FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, WHICH WOULD
LIMIT STORM CHANCES TO ONLY OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES (AT BEST).
NEVERTHELESS, THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF A LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING NEAR THE AREA BY THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THIS IS
STILL A WAYS OUT, AND A LOT CAN CHANGE REGARDING THE PROJECTED
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM (IT ALREADY LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE BEST ASCENT). HIGHS AND
LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE/A TOUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
WEEK, THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
LOOK TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT MAF AND CNM THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
LOW COVERAGE. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 80 63 91 / 30 40 30 10
CARLSBAD 62 89 59 94 / 30 10 10 10
DRYDEN 66 90 65 91 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 67 93 66 96 / 20 20 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 59 82 60 86 / 20 0 10 0
HOBBS 60 81 60 91 / 40 40 20 10
MARFA 57 87 55 88 / 10 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 82 63 91 / 30 20 20 10
ODESSA 66 83 64 91 / 30 20 20 10
WINK 66 90 64 97 / 20 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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