366
FXUS64 KMAF 260519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS WEEK
FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A DRYLINE
WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SETUP ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE
BORDER. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE
DRYLINE/SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THOUGH, LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
GO SEVERE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S AND
90S AREAWIDE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THAT WILL BE LOCATED ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION
AS TODAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SATURDAY'S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF UPPER 70S IN NORTHERN LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HANGS OUT WEST OF THE REGION AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO
MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND WITH THE DRYLINE STILL HANGING
AROUND THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SO LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MAKES A MOVE TUESDAY, SWINGING THROUGH THE
DESSERT SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC FRONT SHUNTS MOISTURE TO THE
EAST. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN
OF THE DRYLINE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SEVERAL SITES TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOISTURE
FLOWING WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY,
MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 80 63 91 65 / 40 30 10 20
CARLSBAD 87 59 94 61 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN 90 65 90 66 / 10 10 20 30
FORT STOCKTON 92 65 96 68 / 20 10 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 82 60 86 60 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 79 59 91 59 / 40 20 10 20
MARFA 87 55 89 59 / 10 10 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 64 91 65 / 30 20 10 30
ODESSA 82 64 91 66 / 30 20 10 30
WINK 88 64 96 65 / 10 10 10 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...95
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