811
FXUS64 KMAF 260808
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
308 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, ALTHOUGH
A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
- A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS NEXT WEEK BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN FOR MORE DISTURBANCES TO ROLL THROUGH OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHIPS ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
DRYLINE SETS IN A MANNER THAT NEARLY FOLLOWS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. BASED ON
SHORT-RANGE MODELS, A LINE OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE, WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. POPS TOMORROW RANGE FROM 20%-60%, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NORTH OF THE PECOS, WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE PECOS REACH MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS FROM
COLORADO TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THIS TIGHTENS OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT,
LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN NEW MEXICO.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY HELP KICK UP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE BIG BEND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH POPS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW (10%-30%). PROVIDED AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, A
FEW STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD SEES A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OUT WEST AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS WITHIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE DRYLINE ALSO HANGS AROUND THE AREA, SERVING AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS MOVING AND DIGS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A PACIFIC FRONT SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
TUESDAY'S HIGHS COMPARED TO MONDAY AND BRINGS THE RETURN OF BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS IN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, DROPPING HIGHS MOSTLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SEVERAL SITES TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOISTURE
FLOWING WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY,
MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 80 63 91 66 / 40 20 10 20
CARLSBAD 86 59 93 60 / 10 0 10 0
DRYDEN 90 66 91 66 / 10 0 10 30
FORT STOCKTON 91 66 96 68 / 20 0 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 81 61 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 79 60 91 59 / 30 10 10 10
MARFA 87 55 89 59 / 0 0 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 64 91 66 / 30 10 10 20
ODESSA 82 65 91 66 / 30 10 10 20
WINK 89 65 96 65 / 10 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95
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