462
FXUS64 KMAF 261719
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, ALTHOUGH
A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
- A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS NEXT WEEK BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN FOR MORE DISTURBANCES TO ROLL THROUGH OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHIPS ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
DRYLINE SETS IN A MANNER THAT NEARLY FOLLOWS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. BASED ON
SHORT-RANGE MODELS, A LINE OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE, WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. POPS TOMORROW RANGE FROM 20%-60%, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NORTH OF THE PECOS, WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE PECOS REACH MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS FROM
COLORADO TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THIS TIGHTENS OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT,
LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN NEW MEXICO.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY HELP KICK UP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE BIG BEND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH POPS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW (10%-30%). PROVIDED AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, A
FEW STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD SEES A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OUT WEST AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS WITHIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE DRYLINE ALSO HANGS AROUND THE AREA, SERVING AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS MOVING AND DIGS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A PACIFIC FRONT SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
TUESDAY'S HIGHS COMPARED TO MONDAY AND BRINGS THE RETURN OF BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS IN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, DROPPING HIGHS MOSTLY INTO THE 70S AND 80S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PRESENT AT MAF AND HOB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOB AND MAF
HAVE A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIRECT TAF IMPACTS POSSIBLE. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 20-23Z FOR HOB AND
23-02Z FOR MAF. GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY BE PRESENT
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS MAKE A RETURN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THESE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO MAF AND HOB, THOUGH A BRIEF REDUCTION AT OTHER
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW BUT POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 91 66 91 / 20 10 20 10
CARLSBAD 59 93 60 89 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 66 91 66 91 / 0 10 30 20
FORT STOCKTON 66 96 68 95 / 0 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 61 86 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 91 59 87 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 55 89 59 88 / 0 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 91 66 90 / 10 10 20 10
ODESSA 65 91 66 90 / 10 10 20 10
WINK 65 96 65 94 / 0 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91
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