191
FXUS64 KMAF 270902
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
402 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
- A LOW (10-40%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH A VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS WINDY AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH A
WIND ADVISORY OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANIED WITH A COUPLE
OF COLD FRONTS LATER ON IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
A NEW WEEK STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, A SURFACE LOW IS GENERATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VIA LEE
TROUGHING. THIS TIGHTENS UP OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTS IN
BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ARE UNDER A
HIGH WIND ADVISORY ALSO THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING DUST WILL BE
OF CONCERN IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS, RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS, AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING
THAT IS ALSO VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, ANOTHER
LOW RAIN CHANCES HANG AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY
LINE SETS UP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER DOWN TO THE BIG BEND.
HOWEVER, STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST FORCING
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH. NONETHELESS, POPS RANGE
FROM 10%-30% OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS CLOSER
TO OUR REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND DRIFTS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
THE DRYLINE SHARPENS UP IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO SUNDAY. FORCING ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET BRING ABOUT NOT ONLY
20%-40% RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. AT THE
MOMENT, THE THREATS LOOK TO BE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. OTHERWISE, HIGHS MONDAY WARM MAINLY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND 90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO STALL WITHIN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
THE DRYLINE BACKS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGH KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY, THE THREATS AGAIN INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF COURSE, THIS WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING AS WE HEAD FORWARD IN TIME. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY REACH INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
A FEW TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE LATE MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY TO STRONG AT MOST SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TODAY, NEAR CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A SURFACE LOW INCREASES SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND THE DRYLINE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.
CRITICAL MINRH VALUES WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
OVER SOME PORTIONS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA, MAINLY LEA COUNTY, MAY
HELP MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS. ERCS REMAIN ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY TO NEAR CRITICAL TO ELEVATED AS
WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN. A FEW DISTURBANCES THIS WEEK BRING
MORE RAIN CHANCES AND, EVENTUALLY, COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION, FURTHER DECREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 67 91 64 / 0 10 20 40
CARLSBAD 94 59 89 57 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN 90 66 92 64 / 10 20 20 40
FORT STOCKTON 96 70 95 66 / 10 10 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS 86 59 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 59 88 57 / 10 10 0 20
MARFA 89 58 88 56 / 10 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 66 90 64 / 10 10 10 40
ODESSA 91 67 90 64 / 10 10 10 40
WINK 96 66 94 63 / 10 10 10 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95
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