260
FXUS64 KMAF 271728
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
- A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
- AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS WIND AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH A
WIND ADVISORY OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
- MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLY THIS WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE
OF COLD FRONTS LATER ON IN THE WEEK BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
A NEW WEEK STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, A SURFACE LOW IS GENERATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VIA LEE
TROUGHING. THIS TIGHTENS UP OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTS IN
BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ARE UNDER A
HIGH WIND ADVISORY ALSO THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLOWING DUST WILL BE
OF CONCERN IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS, RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS, AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING
THAT IS ALSO VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, LOW
RAIN CHANCES HANG AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY
LINE SETS UP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER DOWN TO THE BIG
BEND. HOWEVER, STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH. NONETHELESS,
POPS RANGE FROM 10%-30% OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS CLOSER
TO OUR REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND DRIFTS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
THE DRYLINE SHARPENS UP IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO SUNDAY. FORCING ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET BRING ABOUT NOT ONLY
20%-40% RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. AT THE
MOMENT, THE THREATS LOOK TO BE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. OTHERWISE, HIGHS MONDAY WARM MAINLY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND 90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO STALL WITHIN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
THE DRYLINE BACKS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGH KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY, THE THREATS AGAIN INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF COURSE, THIS WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING AS WE HEAD FORWARD IN TIME. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY REACH INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LARGELY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH WESTERN EXTENT.
A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE VICINITY IS FOR MAF AND FST. DIRECT TSRA
IMPACTS AT THESE TAF SITES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NO MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MORNING ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TODAY, NEAR CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A SURFACE LOW INCREASES SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND THE DRYLINE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.
CRITICAL MINRH VALUES WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ERCS REMAIN ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER SOME PORTIONS WITHIN
THE WARNED AREA, MAINLY LEA COUNTY, MAY HELP MITIGATE FIRE
CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY TO NEAR
CRITICAL TO ELEVATED AS WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN. A FEW
DISTURBANCES THIS WEEK BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES AND, EVENTUALLY,
COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION, FURTHER DECREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 91 64 86 / 10 20 40 40
CARLSBAD 59 89 57 87 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 66 92 64 87 / 20 20 40 30
FORT STOCKTON 70 95 66 90 / 10 20 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS 59 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 59 88 57 85 / 10 0 20 20
MARFA 58 88 56 85 / 10 10 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 90 64 86 / 10 10 40 30
ODESSA 67 90 64 86 / 10 10 40 20
WINK 66 94 63 90 / 10 10 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91
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