373
FXUS64 KMAF 272324
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
- A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE STOCKTON PLATEAU TO PERMIAN
BASIN. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HAZARDOUS
WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPES AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLY THIS WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS LATER ON IN THE WEEK BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE PIECE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER PIECE SINKS TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNER REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE WILL SEPARATE THE
VERY DRY AND RELATIVELY WINDY CONDITIONS, SUPPORTIVE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER, FROM LOCATIONS THAT MAY HAVE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, HIGH WINDS OVER
THE GUADALUPES AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED. FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS LOW (10-
30%) DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND LIMITED ASCENT OUTSIDE OF
THE DRYLINE ITSELF. THAT SAID, ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES MATURE, A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS
EXPECTED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL TAKE SHAPE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
MONDAY, THOUGH THE DRYLINE MOVES A TOUCH FURTHER EAST AND FORCING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER WITH THE DISTURBANCE
SINKING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH A CONTINUED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WITH THE AMPLIFYING WEATHER PATTERN, TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
FOR MANY, AS 100S ARE ACHIEVED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT WITH MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MANY BY
MORNING. DRIER, WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR A
RELATIVELY COOLER START TO EACH DAY.
OVERALL, THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. A REMINDER THAT THE END OF FIRE WEATHER SEASON AND THE
BEGINNING OF SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS UPON US.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S REGIONWIDE. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE
BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. COINCIDENTALLY, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPLYING GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MORE
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS IN STORE AS
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST REGION AFTER SUNSET. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
POSITIONING THE DRYLINE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST JUST EAST OF THE
NM/TX STATE LINE, THANKS TO THE MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM BOTH SYSTEMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN DEPICT ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE GREATEST PROFILE OF CAPE
IS IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE REGION, ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER
1000 J/KG INDICATING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(PWATS) HOVER NEAR THE 00Z DAILY MAXIMUM PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY, SIGNALING HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS BEING
SAID, THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING THESE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
WARM BACK UP ON THURSDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LONG-TERM
GUIDANCE HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEP NEAR THE REGION SUPPLYING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S BRINGING MANY AREAS TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BESIDES LOCATIONS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO VALLEYS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS HINTS AT A
MORE PREVALENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY
SATURDAY, SUPPLYING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST
AREA.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LARGELY PREVAILING FOR WESTERN TERMINALS.
EASTERN TERMINALS CAN EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MAF AND FST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TODAY, NEAR CRITICAL TO EXTREME CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SIMILAR LOCATIONS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
CRITICAL MINRH VALUES PERSIST BEHIND THE DRYLINE. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ERCS REMAIN ABOVE THE
50TH PERCENTILE FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN TO DROP OFF HEADING LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LAMBERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 92 64 86 / 20 20 40 40
CARLSBAD 59 89 56 87 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 67 92 64 87 / 20 20 40 30
FORT STOCKTON 69 95 65 90 / 20 20 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS 59 80 57 78 / 10 0 0 10
HOBBS 59 87 56 85 / 10 10 20 20
MARFA 58 87 55 85 / 10 10 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 91 64 86 / 20 20 40 30
ODESSA 67 90 63 86 / 20 20 40 20
WINK 65 93 62 90 / 20 10 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...91
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