810
FXUS64 KMAF 281704
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
- A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE STOCKTON PLATEAU TO PERMIAN
BASIN. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HAZARDOUS
WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPES AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLY THIS WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS LATER ON IN THE WEEK BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH'S JET MAX
HOVERING OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, RESULTING IN
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER,
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AT THE MOMENT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER AND EXTEND SOUTH TOWARD THE BIG
BEND. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RESULT IN A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND. AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING FRONT MAY HELP KICK UP SOME STORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. COVERAGE LOOKS RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 10%-40%, BEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT LIES. SHOULD A STORM BECOME SEVERE, THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THE 90S IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS, AND THE CENTURY MARK ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. TONIGHT'S
LOWS DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT, AS IT
BECOMES STATIONARY, WITH 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND 60S AHEAD.
TUESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY
STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN ON THE TABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. 10%-50% POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN/STORM CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE
THERE WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SIMILAR TO MONDAY, THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN
THE 80S, THOUGH 90S WILL BE MORE COMMON NEAR THE PECOS AND RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. KICKS OUT EAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE TROUGH
WILL BE THE UPPER TRIGGER WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE
PROVIDING THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN NEAR THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN ALONG THE DRYLINE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF BOTH THESE FEATURES SO IT IS
BEST NOT TO FOCUS ON EXACT RAIN PROBABILITIES BUT INSTEAD THE
GENERAL AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A THREAT WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AND
WITH COOLER AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT CAPE MAY BE LIMITED
AS WELL AS THE SEVERE THREAT. IT WOULD BE NICE TO GET SOME
RAINFALL WITHOUT THE WORRY OF TOO MUCH SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 70S TO END THE WEEK. CAN'T COMPLAIN ABOUT THAT TO START
THE MONTH OF MAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE WERE PUSHING 100 DEGREES JUST
A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
VFR VIS AND CIGS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND MVFR OR LOWER VIS
AND CIGS IN AND WITHIN VICINITY OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS/STORMS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TERMINALS, BECOMING WESTERLY ACROSS SE NM
PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS WEST OF DRYLINE AND BACKING TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY EAST OF DRYLINE BY 08Z-10Z TUESDAY, CONTINUING INTO
END OF PERIOD. LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND COVERAGE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TERMINALS FROM THE
PERMIAN BASIN INTO EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU 21Z TODAY INTO 04Z
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THERE IS
A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING DUST, HAIL, AND LIGHTNING IN ANY
STORMS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL SO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE SAME AREA
AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 86 60 84 / 30 40 70 20
CARLSBAD 56 87 53 83 / 0 10 20 0
DRYDEN 64 88 63 90 / 30 20 40 10
FORT STOCKTON 65 90 60 86 / 20 30 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 56 79 52 74 / 0 0 10 0
HOBBS 56 86 52 80 / 10 10 40 10
MARFA 55 85 52 78 / 20 10 30 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 86 60 83 / 30 20 50 10
ODESSA 63 86 60 83 / 30 20 50 10
WINK 62 90 57 86 / 20 10 40 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94
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