116
FXUS64 KMAF 282318
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
- A LOW CHANCE (20-35%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE STOCKTON PLATEAU TO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AGAIN
TUESDAY.
- A HIGHER (50% TO 70%) CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS AGAIN BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A NARROW PLUME OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT HAS SPREAD FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS, SO PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE MID-
LEVELS IS VIRGA OVER THESE LOCATIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, SO LIGHT
VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WE HAVE ISSUED A BLOWING DUST
WARNING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN
CORRIDOR, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU UNTIL 8 PM CDT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE DRYLINE, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE ALREADY BECOME SEVERE WITH AN EARLIER REPORT OF
GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL ON 349 SOUTHWEST OF MIDKIFF. A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN UNTIL 11 PM CDT.
WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS
WITH CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. /21
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA HAS EVEN INDICATED STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON TODAY. THE CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, COURTESY OF A LONG WAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT
SINCE LAST WEEK. THIS PATTERN HAS KEPT DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
PRESENT, AND TODAY WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN BASIN IN A SLGT RISK AND NORTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN IN AN ENH RISK TODAY, WITH UP TO A 30% RISK OF LARGE
HAIL WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY GIVEN POINT OVER THE LATTER REGION, AS
WELL AS UP TO A 10% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. AMIDST MEAN CAPE 1000-
1500 J/KG FROM STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND
POINTS EAST, MEAN TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS, AND MEAN PWAT 1" TO 1.20" AND LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL RH
BELOW 70% IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS
NECESSARY FOR LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER,
AND DRY ENOUGH CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO MINIMIZE
MELTING OF FALLING HAILSTONES, RESPECTIVELY, WILL ALL BE PRESENT.
THE COMBINATIONS OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-
9 C/KM WILL LEAD TO A PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, CONSIDERING POTENTIAL
FOR BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE, 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM HELICITY AT LEAST 80 M2/S2, AND LCLS BELOW 1000 METERS. HIGHEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE, WHICH FROM WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS
LOOKS TO BE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS TODAY
RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM STORMS
LATER IN THE DAY, TOPPING OUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS
TRANSLATES TO MID 80S TO MID 90S, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S GUADALUPES
INTO WESTERNMOST EDDY COUNTY, AND UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND INTO PRESIDIO VALLEY. UNDER REMAINING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOWS
ONLY FALL 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, TRANSLATING TO MID 50S TO
MID 60S, WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LOWS BETWEEN 50F AND 55F
ACROSS GUADALUPES INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS, AND LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF LOWS ONLY FALLING TO 70F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE
BIG BEND.
TOMORROW, A SIMILAR SETUP WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS LEA COUNTY INTO THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND BIG BEND, AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN
ARE INDICATED ON WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS. SPC HAS AGAIN OUTLINED MUCH
OF THE SAME REGION AS TODAY IN A SLGT RISK, WITH AN ENH RISK OVER
THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND MRGL RISK DOWN TO TERRELL COUNTY
AND EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE DRYLINE IS
AGAIN LIKELY TO SETUP. STORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES, HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN, AND INTERACTIONS/MERGERS OF
ONGOING STORMS THAT WILL ITSELF AID IN SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT FRONT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
TORNADO OR TWO AGAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. POPS HIGHER THAN TODAY AND IN THE 50% TO
70% RANGE ARE INDICATED TUESDAY EVENING AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS SOUTH
OF THE CONVECTIVELY MODULATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. ALL OF THESE
CONSIDERATIONS IN ADDITION TO SIMILAR MEAN CAPE, SHEAR, PWAT,
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, AND HELICITY SUGGESTING MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF BROAD CLUSTERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS OF
STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS THAN THIS EVENING IN MORE HUMID
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS 4 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS
W TX AND 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS SE NM ARE FORECAST
AS THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY, AND CAA,
CLOUDS, AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES - ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN, KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS
ONLY RISING INTO THE 80S, UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
WESTERNMOST AND NORTHERNMOST SE NM PLAINS, A MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS, AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. LOWS THEN
AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST, BUT 5 DEGREES COOLER FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT.
DESPITE STORM CHANCES, NOT EVERY PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL SEE
RAIN, WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT FORECAST CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION. NBM INDICATES A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN INTO MIDLAND-ODESSA, WITH 0.50" TO 0.75" FOR THE
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, 0.75" TO 1.00" IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERNMOST PERMIAN BASIN. ENSEMBLES SHOW RAIN TOTAL
AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THEN NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN, TO MEAN ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTHS OF AN INCH TERRELL COUNTY
INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND UP TO 0.50" OVER NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN, TO AS MUCH AS 0.50" TO 0.75" TERRELL COUNTY INTO CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN AND 1.00" TO 1.50" NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. THERE IS
MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 0.25" IN THE MIDLAND-ODESSA
METRO AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST, HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO
0.50" ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 0.75" WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, AND
MEDIUM TO LOW PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL 1.00" UP TO 1.50" FOR WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. BOTH ENSEMBLES AND NBM ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A DRYLINE WITH A PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT SETTING UP
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S F WEST OF THE DRYLINE, AND LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER, NBM IN COMPARISON
TO ENSEMBLES DEMONSTRATE UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED RAINFALL INTO MID-
WEEK. ALL IN ALL, IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT EVERYWHERE, THE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FEEL DRY WHERE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
AND THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WEATHER AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEING KEPT DOWN FROM CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY
PUSH EAST THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA,
INCLUDING THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER MOST AREAS, EXCEPT IN THE MID
80S TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THURSDAY
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CLIPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES TRANSLATING ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS MOISTURE QUALITY AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY REMAIN IN QUESTION
THIS FAR OUT. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (EXCEPT MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE) ON THURSDAY SHOULD TREND COOLER IN
THE 70S AND 80S OVER MOST PLACES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE WARM ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A SMALL BAND OF VIRGA TRANSLATING FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE
PERMIAN BASIN MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY TO
IFR THRESHOLDS OR LOWER AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 64 86 59 / 20 40 30 80
CARLSBAD 90 57 87 53 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN 93 65 88 63 / 20 30 20 40
FORT STOCKTON 95 65 91 60 / 20 30 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS 81 57 79 52 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 88 57 86 51 / 0 10 10 60
MARFA 87 56 86 51 / 10 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 92 65 86 59 / 10 30 20 70
ODESSA 91 65 86 59 / 10 30 20 70
WINK 94 62 92 58 / 10 10 10 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA
PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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