840
FXUS64 KMAF 291131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
- A MODERATE TO HIGH (40%-80%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH
IT. CURRENTLY, IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW DETAILS ABOUT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A LONGWAVE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR THE PERSISTENT FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT. THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE,
TRIGGERING STORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS NOW DRIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION
AS IT DID SO. ALL THE WHILE, A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE NORTH OF
OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD.
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS PER THE SPC, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SPAN FROM JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER DOWN TOWARD
THE BIG BEND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS FORMING NEAR THE DRYLINE, BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION WILL BE IN CENTERED OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN, CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS WHERE THE SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK CATEGORY, AS THIS AREA WILL
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROVIDED BY A LOW- LEVEL JET AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION. POPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 20% OVER
THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, TO 50% IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. BY THE EVENING, 20% POPS SPREAD WEST
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND RANGE FROM 40%-80% IN THE PERMIAN BASIN,
AGAIN, THE HIGHEST CHANCES LIE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN. DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS WHEN WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR. WEDNESDAY,
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SPLIT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN FRINGES WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR
UP BY THE AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM SEVERE WEATHER AND STORM ACTIVITY, THIS SYSTEM BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE
80S FOR MOST, WITH 90S FORECAST OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND A MIX OF
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE
50S AND 60S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. WEDNESDAY, OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES AND THE MOUNTAINS REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S. 80S DOMINATE
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WHERE HIGHS
REACH INTO THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS INTO TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH SHORTWAVES. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CREATED TUESDAY NIGHT'S TROUBLESOME WEATHER
HEADS NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA.
THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 80S TO 90S ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERTURES NEAR THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION, COOLING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, AND 70S TO 80S FOR MOST EVERYONE ELSE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS APPROACH THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED DAILY RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT.
THOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE PARAMETERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THE FACT THAT WE'VE HAD AN ACTIVE SEASON THUS FAR
MEANS WE WILL DEFINITELY BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THEY
SHAPE UP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT CNM, HOB, AND INK THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, MAF AND FST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING MAINLY
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DRYLINE. DESPITE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, AND ERCS RANGING FROM THE 50TH-89TH
PERCENTILE TODAY, GENERALLY LIGHT 20-FT WINDS WILL HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THESE LOCATIONS. VERY DRY MINRH VALUES
WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER 20-FT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THESE DRY
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT AT LEAST A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT BRINGS IMPROVED
MINRH VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 59 83 53 / 30 70 20 0
CARLSBAD 88 53 82 55 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 89 63 90 58 / 20 30 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 93 61 86 58 / 20 30 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 51 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 87 52 79 52 / 10 40 10 0
MARFA 86 51 77 48 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 87 60 82 55 / 20 60 10 0
ODESSA 87 59 82 56 / 20 60 0 0
WINK 91 58 85 54 / 10 40 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95
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