063
FXUS64 KMAF 300802
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
- A COLD FRONT USHERS PLEASANT AND QUIETER CONDITIONS INTO OUR
AREA TODAY AND THE SYSTEM THAT CAUSED OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER
DEPARTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- AFTER A WARM AND DRY THURSDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS THE
RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ALMOST
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. CURRENTLY, IT IS TOO SOON TO
KNOW DETAILS ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION AND THE NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE SUPPLIED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET AND LIFT FROM THE
FRONT, A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS HAS BEEN LARGE HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING, AS
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
ROLLS IN FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST,
DRAGGING THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH IT. BY LATE AFTERNOON, UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL, THUS ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS, AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WILL WAKE UP TO LOWS IN THE 60S.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE REACHES INTO THE 80S. A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS, THUS POPS REMAIN
BETWEEN 10%-30% IN THIS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS MAINLY DIP INTO
THE 50S. WE GET A BREAK FROM OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY,
UNDER A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRINGS SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
-LOPEZ
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY, BRINGING ABOUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENTLY, POPS RANGE FROM 20%-70%. LOWEST CHANCES ARE ALONG THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY, WHILE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LIE OVER THE TRANS
PECOS, THE STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70S, WHILE MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER RANGE IN THE 80S AND 90S.
A SURFACE HIGH HELPS PUSH THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING ALMOST DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE AS WELL AS CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO KNOW DETAILS ABOUT SEVERE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THINGS WILL BE IRONED OUT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A RATHER DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO SOCAL AND TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES HANG AROUND IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, THESE ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES,
BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS, WILL
THIS SYSTEM HELP COMBAT OUR DRY CONDITIONS, OR WILL THIS BE
ANOTHER WINDBAG? AGAIN, MORE DETAILS TO COME IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
-LOPEZ
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SCATTERED TS, SOME SEVERE, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
FORTUNATELY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AND NOT IMPACT AVIATION OPS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
HENNIG
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
WEST OF THE PECOS TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 20-FT WINDS
AND CRITICAL MINRH VALUES. ERCS REMAIN ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE
WEST OF THE PECOS WITH MOST AREAS ELSEWHERE BELOW THE 50TH
PERCENTILE TODAY. THEREFORE, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DOWN INTO THE BIG BEND THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THURSDAY, ERCS ABOVE THE 50S
PERCENTILE SPREAD EAST TO INCLUDE ALMOST OUR ENTIRE REGION. BY FRIDAY,
A COLD FRONT BRINGS IMPROVED MINRH VALUES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 82 53 89 60 / 20 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 81 54 88 54 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 90 59 92 63 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 85 58 92 61 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 72 55 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 78 52 86 54 / 10 0 0 10
MARFA 76 48 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 82 55 89 60 / 10 0 0 10
ODESSA 81 56 88 61 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 84 54 91 60 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10
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