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FXUS64 KMAF 141123
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S MAY BE HAZARDOUS IF PRECAUTIONS AREN'T TAKEN. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR BIG BEND AND TERRELL COUNTY.
- A STRONG WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS FOR SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
ADDITIONALLY, BLOWING DUST MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO DRIVERS IN THESE
AREAS.
- A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
BEFORE MORE HEAT RETURNS FRIDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY TO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
START WARM THIS MORNING AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. MOST CAN
EXPECTED MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S TO START THE DAY. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WE SEE CONTINUED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SURROUNDINGS AREAS
OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS CAN ALSO EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. IN A SIMILAR VANE,
BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, SO A
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS MANY OF THESE SAME
LOCATIONS. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ELSEWHERE, BUT TO A LESSER
DEGREE. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND LOW 100S ACROSS A BULK OF THE REGION. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR BIG BEND INTO TERRELL COUNTY.
THANKFULLY, THE SCORCHING TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS COME TO
AN END TONIGHT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. THE WARM MORNING TEMPERATURES HOLD ON FOR NOW FOR THE
REMAINING AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE AFTERNOON, MUCH
WEAKER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL, BUT ARE GOING TO
BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. OVERALL, A WELCOMED
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
THE BRIEF COOLDOWN DOES NOT LAST LONG AS MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN ON FRIDAY LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD. SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER BY FRIDAY
MORNING, KEEPING WARM, DRY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER
80S TO 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO VALLEYS
LOOK TO SEE THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
DAYS. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE HAS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPLYING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S OVER MANY AREAS.
BY SUNDAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, DECREASING
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO GO NORTH OF THE REGION.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGHLY VARIABLE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE, LEADING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITIONING AND
MAGNITUDE. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER, HOW NORTH IT WILL GO IS THE
QUESTION. THIS IS ALL TO SAY THAT THE NORTHWARD TRACK IS GOING TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE AND LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
THE DRYLINE RETREATING BACK TO WEST TEXAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENINGS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (< 15%) AND CONFINED TO THE FAR
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE CNM WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO POTENTIALLY IFR. WEST WINDS
CONTINUE AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEW FEW
HOURS AREAWIDE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE 30 TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND FOR
AREAS SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT FROM YESTERDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, CRITICAL MINRH VALUES, AND
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ERCS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE REGION LIMITING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO WORSEN LATER ON THIS
WEEK. FUEL MOISTURE IS STILL NEAR NORMAL, THANKS TO THE RAINFALL
THIS PAST WEEK. THIS WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
TODAY, ALONG WITH MORE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST EXPECTED LIMITING
SOLAR INSOLATION. BY TOMORROW, DRYING FUELS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD BELOW CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL,
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
LAMBERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 102 67 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 94 66 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 105 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 69 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 85 63 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 95 64 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 92 61 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 99 69 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 100 67 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
BREWSTER COUNTY-TERRELL.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN
LEA.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...91
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