400
FXUS64 KMAF 150521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOWER BREWSTER AND TERRELL COUNTIES.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND CULBERSON COUNTY PLAINS, AS WELL AS
GAINES COUNTY. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND CULBERSON, LOVING,
AND REEVES COUNTIES.
- AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS.
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART AND TROUGHING MAKES A RETURN.
AS WE TRANSITION FROM ONE FEATURE TO THE OTHER, UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE ACCELERATED AND MIXED DOWN TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, CULBERSON, AND GAINES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING ANY
DUST KICKED UP DURING THE DAY TO SETTLE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF RATHER HOT DAYS, SOME MINOR RELIEF IS ON THE WAY!
THIS EVENING, AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE US. TONIGHT, AS THE FIRST TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS DRAGS A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS DIP INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST, WHILE THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS DROP INTO THE
70S. THURSDAY, SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WEST TEXAS TOP OUT IN THE 80S.
TRIPLE DIGITS STAY RESTRICTED TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHILE
ELSEWHERE HITS THE 90S. THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS DROP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT FOR ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE IN BAJA,
PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 5 F
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
SATURDAY, A STRONGER TROUGH IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST
COAST, AND WILL PHASE INTO THE BAJA TROUGH, DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT
RANGE WILL INDUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH HIGH WINDS AT TIMES IN THE GUADALUPES BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG W/BLDU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO CONTINUED INCREASING THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS PLATEAUING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ~ 6-8 F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. THESE WINDS WILL SHARPEN UP A DRYLINE OVER
THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
MONDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS EJECTING, TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN DECREASING AHEAD OF A PAC FRONT,
DUE TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING OR SO. AGAIN, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS,
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. HIGH WINDS/BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES AND
PUSHES THROUGH.
TUESDAY, THE TROUGH FURTHER EJECTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, LEAVING
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THEIR NADIR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE COOLEST DAY THIS ENTIRE FORECAST AS
HIGHS END UP WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE OUT CAUSING MVFR
VISIBILITY AT CNM AND HOB FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEYOND THIS
TIME, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR. WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SWING BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
DESPITE RECENT RAINS, NASA SPORT MOISTURE PRODUCTS SUGGEST SOILS ARE
DRYING OUT VERY QUICKLY, AND ANY BENEFITS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. LATEST 0-10 CM SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTILES ARE 20% OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT,
SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THOUGH NEXT WEEK, COINCIDING WITH POOR RECOVERY EACH NIGHT. AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS. CONCERNS BEGIN TO INCREASE BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS 20-FT WINDS BEGIN INCREASING W/THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES/LOW RH TAG TEAM WITH INCREASED 20-FT WINDS TO YIELD
EXTREME RFTI (7-8) OVER MOST OF THE AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS. IF
ERC TRENDS ARE RIGHT, MOST OF THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE ERCS 75TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER BY THEN. STAY TUNED...
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 95 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 59 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 68 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 59 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 58 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 58 85 60 87 / 0 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 61 93 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91
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