843
FXUS64 KMAF 151727
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THANKS TO THE
PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
UP THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
WITH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, A QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERTURES IS ALL THAT CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S
HOLDING ON FOR MOST. THAT SAID, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THAT SEE THE FRONT FIRST MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON END UP BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS EQUATES TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL KEEP WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS ALSO. TEMPERATURES DURING FRIDAY MORNING END UP ABOUT
5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING, BUT SUBTLE RIDGING INCREASES
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS SEE MIDDLE 90S RETURN WITH
ANY 80S CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO OFFER MUCH CHANGE AS YOU
CAN SEE IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO EJECT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY ON SATURDAY, PROVIDING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S ARE
ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO
VALLEYS LOOK TO REACH THE LOWER 100S AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PHASES INTO A STRONGER UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
BY SUNDAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS PHASED INTO THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT, DECREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A TOUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS DEPICT
THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ALL TO SAY THAT THE NORTHWARD TRACK
IS GOING TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY, THOUGH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAS LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS, BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A
PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES
ON WEDNESDAY.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT HOB AND CNM SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 59 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 67 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 58 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 56 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 60 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...95
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