651
FXUS64 KMAF 151945
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
- HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS, AS SOON AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COULD LAST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, SOUTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
- AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS.
INCREASING WINDS BEGINNING SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEPT INTO OUR AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER, WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBTLE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS. LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN
TEXAS. 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST, WHILE THOSE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
HOVER IN THE 70S. FRIDAY, HOTTER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MAKE A
COMEBACK AS AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS IN THE
90S BECOME MORE COMMON AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPANDS IN COVERAGE IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH, LEE TROUGHING BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT SEES LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
SATURDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER BAJA, WHILE A
SECONDARY, STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
IN NOCAL. AS THIS SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST, LEESIDE
TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE WILL BEGIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OUT WEST, W/THE NAM DEVELOPING A MARGINAL MOUNTAIN WAVE
SIGNATURE OVER THE GUADALUPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK
RIGHT ON THE FENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA AND, BEING THE 4TH PERIOD,
WE'LL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW, SAVING OUR POWDER FOR SUNDAY.
BLDU LOOKS POSSIBLE EITHER WAY, HOWEVER. EVEN SO, THESE INCREASED
WINDS WILL ADD A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO ALREADY-INCREASING
THICKNESSES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT ~ 5-7 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO SHARPEN UP A DRYLINE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. IF CONVECTION INITIATES ON THIS FEATURE
BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED EAST, DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW CELLS TO GO SEVERE.
SUNDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TILTING NEGATIVELY, W/THE MOUNTAIN WAVE
SIGNATURE OVER THE GUADALUPES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
A LONG-FUSED HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT COULD LAST
UNTIL TUESDAY, WHEN THE TROUGH CLEARS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SOILS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT, SO BLDU IS A GIVEN. INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY ADD A DEGREE OR SO TO SATURDAY'S HIGHS, MAKING
SUNDAY THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST. THIS COULD BE A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY, AS WELL. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. A DRYLINE WILL RESIDE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA, MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THERE.
MONDAY, THE TROUGH ARRIVES AT THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
AND A PAC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE. THIS WILL START A DOWNTREND IN
THICKNESSES, AND SHAVE MAYBE A DEGREE OFF SUNDAY'S HIGHS.
TUESDAY, THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, DROPPING A COLD FRONT IN BEHIND IT LATE. THIS WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST, AS HIGHS STRUGGLE UP TO RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOOK UNEVENTFUL, WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING SLIGHTLY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT HOB AND CNM SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
DESPITE RECENT RAINS, NASA SPORT MOISTURE PRODUCTS SUGGEST SOILS
ARE DRYING OUT VERY QUICKLY, AND ANY BENEFITS FROM THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. AS A RESULT, SINGLE-DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY, COINCIDING WITH POOR RECOVERY EACH NIGHT. AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS. CONCERNS BEGIN TO INCREASE BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS 20-FT WINDS BEGIN INCREASING W/THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES/LOW RH TAG-TEAM WITH INCREASED 20-FT WINDS TO
YIELD EXTREME RFTI (7-8) OVER MOST OF THE AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE
PECOS. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24
HOURS, AND MONDAY NOW LOOKS ALMOST AS CRITICAL AS SUNDAY. ERCS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, AND BY SUNDAY, MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE
PECOS SHOULD BE IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER. STAY TUNED...
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 59 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 67 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 58 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 56 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 60 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...95
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