634
FXUS64 KMAF 160749
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
- HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN
THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND REACH INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. MID TO UPPER 80S HOLD ACROSS PARTS OF
SE NM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. 100S PERSIST ACROSS BIG
BEND. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST HOLD
OVERHEAD AND LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST. SATURDAY IS SOME WHAT OF A REPEAT TO
FRIDAY, BUT WITH WESTERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER, HIGHS END UP A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AREAWIDE WITH MOST
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, A
LACK OF MOISTURE INHIBITS ANY REAL SHOT AT RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.
THUS, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW(<10%).
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL START THE WEEK OFF SUNDAY AS A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE STRONG SOUTHWEST, DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH WINDS ARE LOOKING
LIKELY ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH STRONGER WINDS SPILLING
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. WILL INCREASE WINDS ABOVE NBM AND ADD
BLOWING DUST AS SOILS CONTINUE TO DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 90S/100S FOR MOST, AND 80S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS HIGH GIVEN IT'S BEEN 10-14 DAYS SINCE OUR LAST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL
TO OUR NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN "COOLER" CONDITIONS
TO HELP EASE THE HEAT FOR A FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 94 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 90 68 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 72 100 72 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 94 71 96 68 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 81 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 88 63 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 85 63 88 58 / 0 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 93 69 95 66 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 92 69 93 66 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 93 66 96 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...93
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