311
FXUS64 KMAF 162002
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
- HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN
THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS INDICATING WEAK RIDGING PERSISTING, WITH 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS 582 TO 588 DECAMETERS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LARGELY
BETWEEN 570 AND 576 DECAMETERS. THIS MAINTAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA TODAY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE NM
PLAINS INTO GUADALUPES, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU. VIS/IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CLOUDS, CONTINUING THE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DAY CLOUD CONDITIONS WE'VE SEEN FOR THE LAST
WEEK. WITH THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS, AND
OCCASIONAL INTERRUPTIONS TO SOLAR RADIATION FROM PASSING CLOUD
COVER, NBM HIGHS TODAY RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
TRANSLATING TO LOWER TO MID 90S, MID TO UPPER 80S LEA COUNTY,
WESTERNMOST EDDY COUNTY INTO MARFA PLATEAU, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
AND UPPER 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS FROM THE BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN
TERRELL COUNTY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY IN ENSEMBLES OF
HIGHS AT LEAST 85F AND WINDS ARE LEAST 15 MPH FROM SE NM PLAINS INTO
STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO THIS EVENING, AND MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF HIGHS
AT LEAST 90F AND WINDS AT LEAST 15 MPH FOR TERRELL COUNTY, SO WE ARE
EXPECTING THE WARMEST AND WINDIEST CONDITIONS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE YEAR, THERE
IS AT LEAST A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF HIGHS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS,
BUT WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY.
TONIGHT, NBM LOWS END UP 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM MARFA PLATEAU AND SE NM PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE, AS
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER LIMITS RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINTAIN WAA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO TERRELL COUNTY
AND THE RIO GRANDE BASINS THAT LOWS WILL NOT FALL BELOW 70F, AND
A SIMILAR PROBABILITY OF HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE 75F IN THE BIG
BEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOWS BELOW 65F ONLY
OVER EDDY COUNTY INTO NORTHERN LEA COUNTY TONIGHT, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LOWS GETTING DOWN BELOW 60F ONLY IN WESTERNMOST
EDDY COUNTY AND NORTHERNMOST LEA COUNTY.
BY SATURDAY, NBM HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR COOLER SPOTS OF NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND GUADALUPES INTO
MARFA PLATEAU, WITH LOWER TO MID 90S, UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF HIGHS AT LEAST
95F FROM UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND BIG BEND ARE
PRESENT, AND LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF HIGHS UP TO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE BIG BEND. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HIGHS BETWEEN 80F AND
85F IS PRESENT OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND GUADALUPES INTO WESTERNMOST
EDDY COUNTY INTO NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR
MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH NBM LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, RANGING FROM MID 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO NORTHERN SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, TO LOWER TO MID 60S LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF MARFA PLATEAU INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN,
AND UPPER 60S INTO LOWER 70S SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. IN ENSEMBLES, A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF LOWS LESS THAN 65F IS ONCE AGAIN PRESENT OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTO SE NM PLAINS, AND A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 70F TO 75F RANGE FROM UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
TERRELL COUNTY AND BIG BEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, RAIN CHANCES STAY NEAR ZERO AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50F, SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL DRY. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS YOU CAN READ IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO LIFT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ACROSS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THESE SAME LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. INCREASED WINDS WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO OUR MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND READINGS AS HOT AS 102-107 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS TO MIX EAST TO JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN BASIN/WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD
POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE, BUT THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA
SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WITH MAINLY
HOT/BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY TO CO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST
TEXAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S OVER MOST
AREAS EXCEPT 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES INCREASE BACK
INTO THE 90S FOR MOST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE COULD BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR TO THE
MARFA PLATEAU/BIG BEND ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
VFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS, WITH STRONGEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
FROM TAF PERIOD INTO 01Z-04Z SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 14Z INTO END OF
PERIOD. 14Z INTO END OF PERIOD, GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR
TERMINALS IN SE NM PLAINS, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND VERY DRY FUELS.
20-FT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 40
MPH. RH'S WILL BOTTOM OUT EACH AFTERNOON AT CRITICAL LEVELS WITH
VALUES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FUELS HAVE
DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH ERC VALUES NOW ABOVE
THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE BY SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST
TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 68 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 100 72 103 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 72 96 68 98 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 64 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 64 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 63 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 95 67 97 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 69 94 66 96 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 66 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NM...
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94
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