844
FXUS64 KMAF 170825
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
- HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN
THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TODAY AND MONDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THICK HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT MIXING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, BUT FURTHER WEST SKIES WILL
CLEAR HELPING TO PROMOTE STRONGER WINDS. GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 50
MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR 40 MPH IN THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK HOT TODAY, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 100S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
AFTER A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
BY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY A TOUCH HIGHER. HAVE POSTED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 90S FOR MOST
WITH 100S BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE
RIVERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS PUTS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST WITH 90S DOWN ACROSS THE BIG BEND. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S RETURNING
NEARLY AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS
LOW(<30%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS COMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SITS JUST TO
THE WEST. DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER NEXT WEEK, SO STAY TUNED!
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
MID MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS BY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER.
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RHS SETTLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FINER FUELS TO MORE RAPIDLY CURE.
HOWEVER, PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
THREAT. A NEAR REPEAT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON
SUNDAY AND WITH AN EXTRA 24 HOURS OF DRYING, FUELS WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING SHOULD A FIRE START OCCUR. FURTHER FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR MONDAY AS RFTIS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 68 97 64 / 10 10 0 20
CARLSBAD 92 62 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 71 103 71 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 97 69 99 66 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 84 61 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 90 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 88 59 90 56 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 95 67 97 64 / 10 10 0 10
ODESSA 94 66 96 64 / 10 10 0 10
WINK 96 63 96 60 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM... HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29
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