560
FXUS64 KMAF 172027
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
- HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO,
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE DRYLINE HAS SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF
OUR AREA AS OF 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT 40S IN THE FAR
EASTERN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REACHING OVER THE CENTURY MARK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSLATING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND
GENERALLY IN THE 60S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AGAIN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ONCE AGAIN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BORDER AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, WHERE FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT
LEAST 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH HAVE WARRANTED AN UPGRADE TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND READINGS BETWEEN 100-110 ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND RIO GRANDE.
THE DRYLINE MAY RETREAT WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A STORM OR
TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SIMILAR PATTERN
CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS MAY IMPACT THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SO WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH THERE
AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST WITH 90S DOWN ACROSS THE
BIG BEND. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S RETURNING
NEARLY AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS
LOW (<30%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS COMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SITS JUST TO
THE WEST. DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER NEXT WEEK, SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
UP TO 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KT AT AREA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
KT OR LESS AFTER 00-02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS (ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PECOS), WITH
RHS CRATERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY FUELS HAVE WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING INTO
EFFECT MONDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TO DETERMINE IF THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 68 98 64 / 10 10 0 20
CARLSBAD 92 61 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 72 103 71 / 10 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 97 69 99 66 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 84 61 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 90 59 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 88 57 90 56 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 95 68 97 64 / 10 10 0 10
ODESSA 94 67 96 64 / 10 10 0 10
WINK 96 62 97 61 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET- GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93/21
AVIATION...21
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