874
FXUS64 KMAF 180802
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
- HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
HIGHER GUSTS WILL SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. AS WINDS INCREASE, BLOWING DUST COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1-3 MILES. THE SHORTER DURATION OF THE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE DUST TO ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OR
SO. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ANCHORED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND 100S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, HEIGHT FALLS WILL PULL THE DRYLINE BACK
WEST TO NEAR I-20. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE
HELPING TO FIRE A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY, DUST-FILLED DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (MUCH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS). LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR EAST WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE
TODAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AN UPPER LOW SWINGS PASSED THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH A FRONT ROLLING THROUGH AND SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLDING FOR AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MOST SPOTS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOLDING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BRING LOW(<20%)
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER, MUCH CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VFR CONTINUES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
BLDU COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT KCNM AND KHOB, BUT RECENT GREEN-
UP SHOULD HELP SOMEWHAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING AS RHS WILL BE CRITICAL(<15%), WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNLIKE SATURDAY,
TODAY WILL FEATURE LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY(SUNDAY). THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONT LATE MONDAY, SO CAUTION WITH
WIND SHIFTS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN IF ANY FIRES DO START AND SPREAD.
BEYOND MONDAY, WINDS DECREASE, BUT CRITICALLY LOW RHS AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 96 63 92 59 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 91 61 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 102 70 98 66 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 67 92 60 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 82 58 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 89 57 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 89 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 96 64 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 94 63 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 97 60 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29
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